Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)


	NAC Breda		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.90	2.30	Watch
	2.70	3.50	2.25
	2.55	3.65	2.28	Watch
	2.91	3.63	2.33
	2.74	3.54	2.4	Watch
	2.85	3.55	2.30
	2.70	3.91	2.26	Watch
	2.75	3.60	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.28)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)	2.29 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
34.1%

Draw
25.4%

Heracles Almelo
40.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41%

25.9%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

24.2%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NAC Breda's form might have worsened.

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heracles Almelo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NAC Breda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verrips M. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 4. Greiml L. 8. Jensen F. 12. Van den Bergh J. 14. Sowah K. 6. Balard M. 78. Van Hecke J. 10. Nassoh M. (C) 28. Brym C. 9. Soumano M.	1. de Keijzer F. (G) 15. Vicente D. 4. Mirani D. 14. Wrusch M. 25. Manny 5. van der Kust D. 32. Scheperman S. (C) 7. Abbas C. 17. van Gilst T. 18. Hauswirth M. 27. N'djoli J.
Substitutes
17. Bouchouari M. 35. Brouwers M. 5. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 19. Gladon P. 23. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 11. Misehouy G. 27. Mperanyi K. 34. Nazih I. 26. Reulen P. 32. van Aarst R.	2. Benita M. 3. Borac M. 10. Bruns T. 35. Bultman S. 8. Engels M. 16. Jansink T. (G) 9. Poppler V. 11. Reine-Adelaide J. 23. te Wierik M. 6. Tomic D. 26. van Kaam D. 33. Zeevalkink L. (G)
Coaches
Kruys R.	Heilmann V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Scheperman S. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Brym C. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, van Gilst T. (Penalty Awarded),
27', Brym C. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
29', van der Kust D. 🟨,
39', Vicente D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vicente D. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
67', Manny ↓, Reine-Adelaide J. ↑,
68', Scheperman S. ↓, Borac M. ↑,
76', Van Hecke J. ↓, Nazih I. ↑,
80', Sowah K. 🟨,
80', Reine-Adelaide J. 🟨,
82', Soumano M. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
88', van Gilst T. ↓, Tomic D. ↑,
88', Abbas C. ↓, te Wierik M. ↑,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 1st in the Promotion - Eredivisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 2.

Breda is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Heracles is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Heracles: Borges Sanches Y. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Breda: Seuntjens M. (Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Breda has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:40 (averaging 1.3:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Breda against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 18:21 goals (averaging 1.6:1.9 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37:14	23	29
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	23:20	3	21

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Heracles: 35.58% NAC Breda: 15.65%

Last Results with these Odds

NAC Breda - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.95%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Heracles Almelo - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.11%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.10.26	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	0:2 ✺
09.10.26	NAC Breda - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Vitesse - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	NAC Breda - FC Eindhoven	4:2 ✺
20.09.26	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTWW
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.10.26	MVV Maastricht - Heracles Almelo	1:5 ✺
09.10.26	Heracles Almelo - Waalwijk	3:0 ✺
02.10.26	Helmond Sport - Heracles Almelo	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	Heracles Almelo - Vitesse	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Almere City - Heracles Almelo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
14.02.26	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	0:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:4
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1
31.01.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:1
02.11.24	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	2:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.05.23	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	0:3
11.11.22	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	5:1

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