Match Info

KNVB Beker - 1/32-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	1.45	5	5.5	Watch
	1.46	4.7	5.9
	25.00	10.89	1.04	Watch
	1.47	4.45	5.94
	1.68	4.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.21 ↑ (1.63)	5.83 ↑ (4.2)	4.52 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
29.1%

Draw
31%

Heracles Almelo
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

21.8%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

18.6%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-27.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NAC Breda's form might have worsened.

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heracles Almelo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NAC Breda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: NAC Breda will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Lamprou K. (G) 25. Valerius C. 12. Greiml L. 15. Mahmutovic E. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 10. Nassoh M. 90. Holtby L. 32. Talvitie J. 17. van Hooijdonk S. 14. Sowah K.	16. Jansink T. (G) 23. te Wierik M. 4. Mirani D. (C) 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 24. Mesik I. 70. Hrustic A. 8. Engels M. 13. Zamburek J. 7. Limbombe B. 9. Hornkamp J. 19. Kulenovic L.
Substitutes
99. Bielica D. (G) 7. Brym C. 44. Goos T. (G) 20. Jensen F. 5. Kongolo T. 8. Leemans C. 2. Lucassen B. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 18. van Reeuwijk D.	39. Blokhuis S. 21. Borges Sanches Y. 1. de Keijzer F. (G) 30. Mantel R. (G) 73. Ould Chikh W. 27. Tijink J. 5. van der Kust D.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Sibum B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', Greiml L. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Hrustic A. ⚽, Limbombe B. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Hornkamp J. ⚽, Kulenovic L. (A),
40', Kulenovic L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Mahmutovic E. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
46', Greiml L. ↓, Jensen F. ↑,
46', Balard M. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
54', 1 - 2, Kemper B. ⚽,
57', Zamburek J. 🟨,
63', Hornkamp J. ↓, Ould Chikh W. ↑,
63', Limbombe B. ↓, Borges Sanches Y. ↑,
67', Talvitie J. ↓, Brym C. ↑,
68', 1 - 3, Borges Sanches Y. ⚽,
74', Sowah K. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
88', Zamburek J. ↓, van der Kust D. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 4, Ould Chikh W. ⚽, Borges Sanches Y. (A),
90+4', Engels M. ↓, Blokhuis S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

In recent matches, Breda has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Heracles is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Breda is the team to beat.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Breda won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:36. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.7:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Heracles Almelo - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.06%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
24.10.25	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	3:3 ✺
18.10.25	NAC Breda - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	NAC Breda - Groningen	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTLLW
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
25.10.25	Volendam - Heracles Almelo	3:0 ✺
19.10.25	Heracles Almelo - Feyenoord	0:7 ✺
05.10.25	Twente - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1
31.01.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:1
02.11.24	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	2:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.05.23	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	0:3
11.11.22	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	5:1
Dutch Eredivisie
06.04.19	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	1:0
03.11.18	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1

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