Match Info

Date: 29 January 2022, Saturday


	Exeter City		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.75
	1.75	3.4	4.8
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.83	3.35	4.2
	1.81	3.6	4.87
	1.8	3.4	4.5
	1.83	3.58	5.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 (1.81)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)	4.67 ↑ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
52.5%

Draw
27.2%

Hartlepool United
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

26.8%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

18.9%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-15.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hartlepool United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Exeter City - Hartlepool United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 8 and 16).

Exeter has the most likely position - 4 (9.73%), has project points - 72, has currently - 40, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (37%), has a chance of promoted (26%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 21 (14.88%), has project points - 49, has currently - 30, has a small chance of relegated (11%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Hartlepool could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Exeter won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League Two
22.01.22	Walsall - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
15.01.22	Exeter City - Scunthorpe United	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.01.22	Exeter City - Portsmouth	2:3 ✺
English League Two
04.01.22	Forest Green Rovers - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
01.01.22	Sutton United - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLTL
- Hartlepool United
English EFL Trophy
25.01.22	Hartlepool United - Charlton Athletic	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
22.01.22	Hartlepool United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
18.01.22	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
15.01.22	Bristol Rovers - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
08.01.22	Hartlepool United - Blackpool	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.09.21	Hartlepool United - Exeter City	1:1
English FA Cup
10.12.19	Hartlepool United - Exeter City	1:0 ET
01.12.19	Exeter City - Hartlepool United	2:2
English League Two
04.03.17	Hartlepool United - Exeter City	3:1
13.08.16	Exeter City - Hartlepool United	1:2
30.01.16	Hartlepool United - Exeter City	0:2
12.09.15	Exeter City - Hartlepool United	1:0

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