Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 6 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)


	FBC Melgar		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.5
	1.64	3.8	5.5
	1.61	3.96	6.05
	1.57	3.5	5
	1.61	3.85	5.65	Watch
	1.6	3.75	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.78)	3.78 ↑ (3.48)	5.55 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
58.3%

Draw
24.8%

Patronato Parana
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

27%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

FBC Melgar - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Patronato will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 3. Orzan H. 5. Deneumostier A. 2. Galeano L. 17. Archimbaud J. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Martinez T. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 7. Bordacahar C. 11. D'Arrigo J. 9. Cuesta B.	27. Budino M. (G) 4. Geminiani L. 29. Gonzalez C. 36. Ghiraldello J. 30. Kruspzky L. 15. Vazquez F. 14. Nievas B. 5. Domingo N. 16. Barinaga J. 22. Sosa A. 9. Diaz E.
Substitutes
22. Aguinaga A. 28. Arias A. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 14. Cavero S. 1. Farro R. (G) 29. Ibanez P. 16. Iberico L. 33. Lazo M. 35. Magnin P. 18. Portugal B. 4. Ramos E. 19. Reyna P.	8. Arce D. 3. Cobos F. 7. Esquivel J. 25. Gonzalez K. 34. Levato M. 19. Malimberni S. 11. Novero G. 23. Ruiz M. 32. Russo I. 1. Salva J. (G) 28. Solis N. 10. Valdez J.
Coaches
Soso M.	Otta W.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Patronato could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Melgar have a series of home games.

In this match Melgar is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Melgar won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
31.05.23	FBC Melgar - Universidad César Vallejo	2:2 ✺
28.05.23	Carlos A. Mannucci - FBC Melgar	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.05.23	FBC Melgar - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.05.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
15.05.23	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLWL
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.06.23	Agropecuario Argentino - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
28.05.23	Patronato Parana - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.05.23	Patronato Parana - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.05.23	San Telmo - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
13.05.23	Patronato Parana - Temperley	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.05.23	Patronato Parana - FBC Melgar	4:1

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