Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Frolov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	BandSports, Xsports
Russia	Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fakel		Zenit

	1	X	2
	4.35	3.40	1.80
	5.20	3.40	1.77
	5.57	3.56	1.75	Watch
	4.70	3.35	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.96 ↓ (8.4)	3.43 ↓ (4.7)	1.77 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
19.1%

Draw
27.6%

Zenit
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.9%

19.4%

69.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

18.6%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fakel's performance.

Zenit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zenit might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fakel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zenit than the current prediction. (+19.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zenit could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Fakel - Zenit Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Zenit will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 53. Bardachev M. 44. Zhuravlev Y. 55. Todorovic D. 97. Magomedov B. 52. Netfullin R. 10. Alshin I. (C) 99. Giorgobiani N. 9. Gnapi Dable A. 11. Sutormin A.	16. Adamov D. (G) 31. Gustavo Mantuan 78. Diveev I. 28. Alip N. 66. Vega R. 5. Barrios W. (C) 93. Karpukas A. 11. Luiz Henrique 61. Kondakov D. 14. Jhon Jhon 9. Felipe Augusto
Substitutes
8. Bagamaev A. 25. Belyaev A. 35. Dorovskikh V. (G) 22. El Mhassani H. 17. Kovalev A. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 19. Pusi B. 7. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M. 23. Yakimov V. 20. Yurganov I.	25. Andrade K. 21. Erokhin A. 15. Karavaev V. 57. Moskvichev B. (G) 38. Musaev A. 33. Nino 71. Odoevskiy D. (G) 51. Shilov V. 7. Sobolev A. 82. Volkov S.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Semak S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Magomedov B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Alshin I. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
65', Felipe Augusto ↓, Sobolev A. ↑,
65', Vega R. ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
65', Jhon Jhon ↓, Karavaev V. ↑,
67', Gnapi Dable A. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
67', Sutormin A. ↓, Yakimov V. ↑,
78', Barrios W. ↓, Erokhin A. ↑,
85', Diveev I. 🟥,
86', Todorovic D. ↓, Bagamaev A. ↑,
86', Magomedov B. ↓, Yurganov I. ↑,
87', Giorgobiani N. 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Sobolev A. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Luiz Henrique ↓, Nino ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 0.

Fakel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Zenit's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Zenit is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Fakel: Magkeev S. (Muscle Injury) Turishchev M. (Injury)

There will not play in Zenit: Glushenkov M. (Red Card)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 3:18. (average 0.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Fakel Voronezh: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Zenit	10	7	0	3	22:11	11	21
16	Fakel Voronezh	10	0	3	7	6:18	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Zenit - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 69.7%, but this team recently wins 91% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Premier League
22.08.26	Fakel - Orenburg	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
18.08.26	Akhmat Grozny - Fakel	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
15.08.26	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	1:0 ✺
10.08.26	Fakel - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Fakel - Dynamo Moscow	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL
- Zenit St Petersburg
Russian Premier League
23.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Zenit	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
19.08.26	Krylya Sovetov - Zenit	0:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
16.08.26	Zenit - Dynamo Moscow	3:0 ✺
09.08.26	Zenit - Rodina Moscow	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Zenit - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
08.03.25	Fakel - Zenit	0:2
Russian Cup
22.10.24	Fakel - Zenit	0:1
Russian Premier League
21.09.24	Zenit - Fakel	3:1
Russian Cup
30.07.24	Zenit - Fakel	3:0
Russian Premier League
06.05.24	Fakel - Zenit	1:1
13.08.23	Zenit - Fakel	2:0
03.06.23	Zenit - Fakel	1:0

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