Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Ivanov S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Russia	Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fakel		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.26	3.03
	2.45	3.25	3.00
	2.57	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.41	3.15	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.34)	3.24 ↑ (3.15)	3.01 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
38.5%

Draw
29.6%

Orenburg
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

29%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

28.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Fakel - Orenburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Fakel will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fakel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 44. Zhuravlev Y. 53. Bardachev M. 55. Todorovic D. 23. Yakimov V. 52. Netfullin R. 10. Alshin I. (C) 8. Bagamaev A. 9. Gnapi Dable A. 11. Sutormin A.	1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 24. Sivis M. 6. Palacios J. 5. Tataev A. (C) 26. Tsenov E. 78. Kul R. 57. Bolotov E. 8. Puebla D. 11. Nazarenko E. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 30. Guzina G.
Substitutes
25. Belyaev A. 35. Dorovskikh V. (G) 22. El Mhassani H. 99. Giorgobiani N. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 19. Pusi B. 18. Simonov K. 93. Uridia M. 20. Yurganov I.	19. Alexandre Jesus 21. Bosch B. 7. Gonzalez J. 65. Ivashchenko I. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 38. Kasimov A. 95. Khodanovich A. (G) 63. Minatulaev O. 2. Poroykov S. 80. Pykhcheev M. 59. Syshchenko M. 3. Vedernikov D.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Rybchinskiy D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bagamaev A. ↓, Giorgobiani N. ↑,
51', Puebla D. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Sutormin A. ↓, Yurganov I. ↑,
64', Netfullin R. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
67', Palacios J. 🟨,
70', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Kasadzhikov A. ↑,
78', Guzina G. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
78', Puebla D. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
79', Tataev A. 🟨,
79', Alshin I. ↓, Pusi B. ↑,
80', Todorovic D. 🟨,
90+3', Gonzalez J. ↓, Minatulaev O. ↑,
90+3', Nazarenko E. ↓, Ivashchenko I. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 2.

Fakel has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Orenburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fakel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:23. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.5:1.1).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Fakel Voronezh: 0.84% Orenburg: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Orenburg	10	2	6	2	11:10	1	12
16	Fakel Voronezh	10	0	3	7	6:18	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Fakel - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Orenburg - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.02%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Cup
18.08.26	Akhmat Grozny - Fakel	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
15.08.26	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	1:0 ✺
10.08.26	Fakel - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Fakel - Dynamo Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Krasnodar - Fakel	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- FC Orenburg
Russian Cup
18.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Orenburg	1:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
14.08.26	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Rubin Kazan - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Orenburg	5:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Orenburg - Zenit	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
15.03.25	Orenburg - Fakel	1:0
24.08.24	Fakel - Orenburg	1:0
31.03.24	Fakel - Orenburg	0:0
21.10.23	Orenburg - Fakel	1:2
Russian Cup
21.09.23	Orenburg - Fakel	1:0 penalties
29.08.23	Fakel - Orenburg	0:1
Russian Premier League
22.04.23	Fakel - Orenburg	1:3

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