Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Israel	Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7


	Farense		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.75
	2.9	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.59
	2.9	3.18	2.56	Watch
	2.62	3	2.62	Watch
	2.96	3.29	2.57	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.6)	3.2 ↓ (3.33)	2.56 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
33.5%

Draw
29.6%

Famalicão
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

28.5%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

29.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	35.3%	47.1%

Farense - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Famalicão will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 3. Moreno M. 5. Ribeiro T. 28. Pastor 20. Rony Lopes 21. Soares F. 2. Paulo Victor 10. Njie Y. 19. Costa R. 9. Tomane	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 8. Topic M. 6. Van de Looi T. 7. Sorriso 20. Sa G. (C) 11. Aranda O. 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 31. Derick Poloni 4. Jorge A. 80. Justo S. 77. Matias M. 14. Poveda D. 34. Raul Silva 8. Ze Carlos	14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 88. Lobato S. 2. Lucas Calegari 15. Mamageishvili O. 4. Mihaj E. 13. Pedro Bondo 29. Sejk V. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Marreco T.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Realpe L. 🟨,
17', Rony Lopes 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Elisor S. ⚽, Sa G. (A),
34', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
40', Paulo Victor 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Soares F. ⚽, Claudio Falcao (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
52', Elisor S. 🟨,
56', Soares F. 🟨,
66', Topic M. ↓, De Amorim M. ↑,
67', Tomane ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
69', Moreno M. 🟨,
73', Ribeiro T. 🟨,
76', Aranda O. ↓, Gil Dias ↑,
76', Elisor S. ↓, Sejk V. ↑,
79', Rony Lopes ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
79', Soares F. ↓, Matias M. ↑,
90', Rafa Soares ↓, Pedro Bondo ↑,
90', Ribeiro T. ↓, Raul Silva ↑,
90', Njie Y. ↓, Justo S. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Poveda D. ⚽, Claudio Falcao (A),
90+6', Bermejo A. 🟨,
90+6', Pedro Bondo 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 1.

Farense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Famalicão is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Farense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Farense: Balde E. (Inactive) Moreno M. (Inactive) Neto (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Farense: Velho R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Zabiri Y. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Farense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Farense - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.48%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
26.04.25	Gil Vicente - Farense	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Farense - Boavista	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Estrela da Amadora - Farense	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Farense - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
02.04.25	Benfica - Farense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWTL
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
25.04.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:1 ✺
18.04.25	Porto - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	3:0 ✺
05.04.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Famalicão - AVS	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.12.24	Famalicão - Farense	1:2
10.02.24	Farense - Famalicão	1:1
02.09.23	Famalicão - Farense	1:0
27.02.21	Famalicão - Farense	0:0
18.10.20	Farense - Famalicão	3:3
Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.19	Famalicão - Farense	0:0
11.08.18	Farense - Famalicão	1:0

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