Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Farense		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.7
	2	3.15	3.75
	2.11	3.15	4.3
	2	3.16	4.03	Watch
	2	2.9	3.6
	2.07	3.08	3.76	Watch
	1.9	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.83)	3.11 ↓ (3.35)	3.88 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
46.2%

Draw
29.8%

Leixões
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

27.7%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

28%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Farense - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Leixões will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 50%). Leixões (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 43. Dario Miranda 26. Ruben 34. Herrero T. 20. Semedo Y. 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 7. Costa R. 8. Menino M. 6. Derick Poloni 9. Carter A.	99. Tabuaco G. (G) 63. Faria H. 14. Matheus Costa 3. Figueiredo L. 77. Paulinho (C) 66. Balde A. 22. Araujo C. 15. Simaozinho 11. Agra S. 35. Rochez B. 9. Bica
Substitutes
17. Candeias A. 25. Dorregaray D. 21. Jaiminho 77. Matias M. 80. Ndiaye A. 14. Poveda D. 46. Rafael Pontelo 90. Sangare B. 30. Tannander J. (G)	27. Barbosa R. 13. Evrard Zag 2. Fonseca F. 33. Luccas Paraizo 20. Miguel Sousa 5. Naldo 8. Neto 28. Pina R. 51. Stefanovic I. (G)
Coaches
Brito C.	Silva G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Carter A. ⚽, Herrero T. (A),
18', Menino M. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Rochez B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Menino M. ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
47', Candeias A. 🟥,
49', 1 - 2, Bica ⚽,
50', Semedo Y. 🟨,
64', Dario Miranda ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
65', Carter A. ↓, Sangare B. ↑,
69', Bica ↓, Luccas Paraizo ↑,
70', Agra S. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
75', Costa R. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
80', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
84', Alex Pinto ↓, Matias M. ↑,
86', Araujo C. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
90+4', Rochez B. ↓, Pina R. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 3.

Farense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leixões is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leixões may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Farense is a strong favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Farense won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:3. (average 1.5:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
07.02.26	Marítimo - Farense	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Farense - Porto B	2:3 ✺
25.01.26	Torreense - Farense	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Farense - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Farense - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLTL
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
07.02.26	Leixões - Feirense	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Leixões - Benfica B	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Felgueiras - Leixões	0:1 ✺
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Leixões - Farense	0:2
05.03.23	Farense - Leixões	1:0
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Leixões - Farense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Leixões - Farense	0:1
17.01.22	Farense - Leixões	0:1
10.08.21	Leixões - Farense	3:1
09.03.20	Leixões - Farense	1:1

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