Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 22

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Algarve (Faro/Loulé)

Referee: Martins T. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sport TV Africa, ZAP
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	TV Start Triumph
Saudi-arabia	Shahid VIP
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Triller TV+


	Farense		Porto

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	5.99	3.94	1.63
				Watch
	5	3.7	1.6	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.5 ↓ (8.4)	3.82 ↓ (5.1)	1.62 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
17.1%

Draw
24.6%

Porto
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.4%

18.9%

69.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11%

18.2%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Farense's performance.

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Porto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Porto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	20.8%	75%

Farense - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Porto will win (votes: 18 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 57.7% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (G) 3. Moreno M. 29. Claudio Falcao 4. Jorge A. 28. Pastor 8. Ze Carlos 93. Menino M. 2. Paulo Victor 77. Matias M. (C) 10. Njie Y. 20. Rony Lopes	99. Costa D. (C) 4. Otavio 24. Perez N. 97. Pedro J. 11. Pepê 20. Franco A. 10. Vieira F. 74. Moura F. 19. Danny Namaso 27. Gul D. 86. Mora R.
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 19. Costa R. 31. Derick Poloni 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 44. Lucas Africo 14. Poveda D. 5. Ribeiro T. 21. Soares F. 9. Tomane	70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 3. Djalo T. 6. Eustaquio S. 23. Joao Mario 9. Samu 15. Sousa V. 22. Varela A. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Marreco T.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
48', 0 - 1, Moura F. ⚽, Vieira F. (A),
59', Jorge A. 🟨,
61', Danny Namaso ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
61', Franco A. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
63', Moreno M. 🟨,
64', Gul D. ↓, Samu ↑,
64', Njie Y. 🟨,
69', Perez N. 🟨,
71', Njie Y. ↓, Tomane ↑,
71', Matias M. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
72', Mora R. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
81', Menino M. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
81', Jorge A. ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
81', Paulo Victor ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
84', Pepê ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
90+1', Joao Mario 🟨,
90+5', Ze Carlos 🟥,

Preview

Neutral location.

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

Farense has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Porto is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Farense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Porto is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Farense: Balde E. (Red Card)

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4:13 (average 0.8:2.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
09.02.25	Farense - Nacional	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Farense - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
19.01.25	Moreirense - Farense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.25	Farense - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLTL
- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Porto - Roma	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Rio Ave - Porto	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.01.25	Porto - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.09.24	Porto - Farense	2:1
28.01.24	Farense - Porto	1:3
20.08.23	Porto - Farense	2:1
10.05.21	Porto - Farense	5:1
25.01.21	Farense - Porto	0:1

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