Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Canal+
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2, VOOsport World 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	CANAL+ Foot, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
Japan	Wowow Live
Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Q Sport
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Fox Sports
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV3+, Viaplay
Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2, Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5, Sport TV+
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 2
Usa	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Porto		Roma

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.73	3.21	2.81
	2.72	3.19	2.82	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.75
	2.69	3.28	2.82
	2.65	3.25	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.27)	3.21 ↓ (3.49)	2.8 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Porto
35.8%

Draw
29.9%

Roma
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

27.4%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.5%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Porto's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.4%	33.9%	38.7%

Porto - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 16 - 26.7%). Roma will win (votes: 24 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 27.6% – 52.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 3. Djalo T. 24. Perez N. 4. Otavio 23. Joao Mario 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 74. Moura F. 70. Borges G. 9. Samu 86. Mora R.	99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 56. Saelemaekers A. 17. Kone M. 4. Cristante B. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 3. Angelino 21. Dybala P. 11. Dovbyk A.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 5. Marcano I. 97. Pedro J. 11. Pepê 25. Perez T. 15. Sousa V. 10. Vieira F. 7. William Gomes 12. Zaidu	12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 70. De Marzi G. (G) 92. El Shaarawy S. 95. Gollini P. (G) 15. Hummels M. 25. Nelsson V. 16. Paredes L. 61. Pisilli N. 14. Shomurodov E. 18. Soule M.
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Pellegrini Lo. 🟨,
20', Varela A. 🟨,
29', Celik Z. 🟨,
34', Kone M. 🟨,
40', Dybala P. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
45+2', Moura F. 🟨,
45+2', Saelemaekers A. 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 1, Celik Z. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Saelemaekers A. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
46', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
63', Mora R. ↓, Pepê ↑,
63', Varela A. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
64', Cristante B. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Moura F. ⚽,
67', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
71', Otavio 🟨,
72', Cristante B. 🟨,
75', Dovbyk A. ↓, Paredes L. ↑,
75', Otavio ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
85', Moura F. ↓, Zaidu ↑,
85', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
90+4', Paredes L. 🟨,
90+4', Baldanzi T. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Porto is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Roma is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Roma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Muscle Injury) Grujic M. (Muscle Injury) Marcano I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Marin R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Roma: Paredes L. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Porto won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Porto won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Rio Ave - Porto	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.01.25	Porto - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Porto - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTWTL
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Venezia - Roma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.02.25	Milan - Roma	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Roma - Napoli	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Roma - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
26.01.25	Udinese - Roma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.21	Porto - Roma	1:1
UEFA Champions League
06.03.19	Porto - Roma	3:1 ET
12.02.19	Roma - Porto	2:1
23.08.16	Roma - Porto	0:3
17.08.16	Porto - Roma	1:1

Upcoming Matches