Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	17:00	ESPN
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Canal+
Azerbaijan	00:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2, VOOsport World 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	17:00	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:00	Sport 1
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Free
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	22:00	Sport 1
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
Japan	05:00	Wowow Live
Kazakhstan	02:00	Qazsport, Q Sport
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	14:00	Fox Sports
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 3, TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Peru	15:00	ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 2, Viaplay
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5, Sport TV+
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	04:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 2
Usa	15:00	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	Disney+


	Porto		Roma

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.73	3.21	2.81
	2.72	3.19	2.82	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.75
	2.69	3.28	2.82
	2.65	3.25	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.27)	3.21 ↓ (3.49)	2.8 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
35.8%

Draw
29.9%

Roma
34.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42%

27.4%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.5%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Porto's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.4%	33.9%	38.7%

Porto - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 16 - 26.7%). Roma will win (votes: 24 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 27.6% – 52.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 3. Djalo T. 24. Perez N. 4. Otavio 23. Joao Mario 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 74. Moura F. 70. Borges G. 9. Samu 86. Mora R.	99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 56. Saelemaekers A. 17. Kone M. 4. Cristante B. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 3. Angelino 21. Dybala P. 11. Dovbyk A.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 5. Marcano I. 97. Pedro J. 11. Pepê 25. Perez T. 15. Sousa V. 10. Vieira F. 7. William Gomes 12. Zaidu	12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 70. De Marzi G. (G) 92. El Shaarawy S. 95. Gollini P. (G) 15. Hummels M. 25. Nelsson V. 16. Paredes L. 61. Pisilli N. 14. Shomurodov E. 18. Soule M.
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Pellegrini Lo. 🟨,
20', Varela A. 🟨,
29', Celik Z. 🟨,
34', Kone M. 🟨,
40', Dybala P. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
45+2', Moura F. 🟨,
45+2', Saelemaekers A. 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 1, Celik Z. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Saelemaekers A. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
46', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
63', Mora R. ↓, Pepê ↑,
63', Varela A. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
64', Cristante B. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Moura F. ⚽,
67', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
71', Otavio 🟨,
72', Cristante B. 🟨,
75', Dovbyk A. ↓, Paredes L. ↑,
75', Otavio ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
85', Moura F. ↓, Zaidu ↑,
85', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
90+4', Paredes L. 🟨,
90+4', Baldanzi T. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Porto is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Roma is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Roma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Muscle Injury) Grujic M. (Muscle Injury) Marcano I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Marin R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Roma: Paredes L. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Porto won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Porto won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Rio Ave - Porto	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.01.25	Porto - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Porto - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTWTL
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Venezia - Roma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.02.25	Milan - Roma	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Roma - Napoli	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Roma - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
26.01.25	Udinese - Roma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.07.21	Porto - Roma	1:1
UEFA Champions League
06.03.19	Porto - Roma	3:1 ET
12.02.19	Roma - Porto	2:1
23.08.16	Roma - Porto	0:3
17.08.16	Porto - Roma	1:1

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