Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 21

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7


	Farense		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3	3
	2.45	3	3.1	Watch
	2.52	3.06	3.28
	2.44	3.06	3.18	Watch
	2.4	3	2.9	Watch
	2.41	3.2	3.08	Watch
	2.45	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.56)	3.05 ↓ (3.23)	3.09 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
38.7%

Draw
30.8%

Nacional
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.2%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

29.2%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Farense - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (G) 3. Moreno M. 29. Claudio Falcao 44. Lucas Africo 77. Matias M. (C) 8. Ze Carlos 93. Menino M. 2. Paulo Victor 20. Rony Lopes 9. Tomane 7. Balde E.	37. Lucas Franca (C) 22. Garcia 38. Ze Vitor 34. Leo Santos 5. Jose Gomes 88. Matheus Dias 27. Soumare D. 71. Yamada F. 8. Bruno Costa 98. Paulinho Boia 99. Dudu
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 19. Costa R. 31. Derick Poloni 4. Jorge A. 80. Justo S. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 10. Njie Y. 5. Ribeiro T. 70. Rivaldo	70. Appiah A. 2. Aurelio J. 17. Daniel Penha 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 33. Goncalves C. 23. Isaac 15. Labidi C. 7. Macedo R. 18. Sousa A.
Coaches
Marreco T.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Yamada F. 🟨,
26', Rony Lopes 🟨,
41', Balde E. 🟥,
45+4', Lucas Franca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Matias M. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
46', Rony Lopes ↓, Rivaldo ↑,
46', Matheus Dias ↓, Daniel Penha ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Jose Gomes ⚽, Dudu (A),
51', Yamada F. 🟨,
56', Moreno M. ↓, Njie Y. ↑,
56', Menino M. ↓, Justo S. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Jose Gomes ⚽, Soumare D. (A),
65', Paulinho Boia ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
70', Paulo Victor ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
76', Bruno Costa ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
76', Dudu ↓, Appiah A. ↑,
87', Daniel Penha ↓, Isaac ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 2.

Farense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Nacional is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Nacional: Esteves L. (Yellow Cards) Ulisses (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Nacional: Baeza M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Farense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:11 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Farense - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
19.01.25	Moreirense - Farense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.25	Farense - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.01.25	Santa Clara - Farense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLTLT
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
01.02.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Nacional - AVS	3:1 ✺
12.01.25	Nacional - Porto	2:0 ✺
29.12.24	Rio Ave - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.09.24	Nacional - Farense	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
14.05.23	Nacional - Farense	0:1
07.01.23	Farense - Nacional	1:0
24.04.22	Nacional - Farense	3:2
12.12.21	Farense - Nacional	2:2
Liga Portugal
13.02.21	Nacional - Farense	2:3
27.09.20	Farense - Nacional	0:1

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