Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 30

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ferroviária		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.85	Watch
	2.45	2.95	2.8
	2.52	3	2.88
	2.62	3.03	3.06
	2.53	2.97	2.88
	2.5	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.27)	2.99 ↓ (3.27)	2.89 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
36.8%

Draw
31%

América Mineiro
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

29.5%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Ferroviária - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 31. Ze Mario 29. Tarik 10. Fabricio Daniel 35. Netinho 8. Alencar 77. Juninho 92. Carlao	1. Gustavo (G) 26. Maguinho 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 3. Lucao 29. Paulinho 7. Miguelito 15. Kaua Diniz 2. Emerson Santos 40. Yago Souza 8. Felipe Amaral 9. Willian Bigode
Substitutes
20. Albano 66. Edson Lucas 27. Hernani 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 37. Thiago Lopes 11. Vitor Barreto 4. Vitor Mendes 17. Ze Hugo	20. Aloisio 39. Arthur Sousa 27. Cassio Meneses (G) 28. Fabinho 18. Julio Cesar 6. Marlon 42. Miqueias 10. Ortiz C. 4. Rafa Barcelos 99. Rafa Silva 17. Stenio 33. Yago Santos
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Fabricio Daniel ⚽,
24', Juninho ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
27', Alencar 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Maguinho ⚽, Paulinho (A),
33', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Ze Mario 🟨,
59', Alencar ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
59', Ze Mario ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
60', Felipe Amaral 🟨,
62', Miguelito 🟨,
62', Miguelito ↓, Fabinho ↑,
71', Willian Bigode ↓, Arthur Sousa ↑,
71', Yago Souza ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
78', Vitor Barreto ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
78', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Albano ↑,
84', Felipe Amaral ↓, Aloisio ↑,
84', Kaua Diniz ↓, Miqueias ↑,
87', Netinho 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 2, Lucao ⚽, Ortiz C. (A),
90+5', Edson Lucas 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 3, Fabinho (Pen),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 15).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.25%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

América Mineiro - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.14%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Ferroviária - Goiás	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Avaí - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
15.09.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Coritiba - Ferroviária	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTTLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
29.09.25	América Mineiro - Volta Redonda	2:1 ✺
25.09.25	Atlético Goianiense - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	América Mineiro - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	América Mineiro - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.06.25	América Mineiro - Ferroviária	1:2
Copa do Brasil
25.08.20	América Mineiro - Ferroviária	1:0
11.03.20	Ferroviária - América Mineiro	0:0

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