Match Info

Serie A - Round 28

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Arena A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football
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Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
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Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Lazio		Sassuolo

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.5
	2.38	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.17	3.38
	2.33	3.17	3.31	Watch
	2.25	3	3.25
	2.4	3.26	3.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.17)	3.14 ↓ (3.27)	3.35 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
41.1%

Draw
30.4%

Sassuolo
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.9%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

30%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.7%	21.7%	26.7%

Lazio - Sassuolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 30 - 54.5%). Sassuolo will win (votes: 14 - 25.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lazio: 41.3% – 67.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Sassuolo (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Lazio (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Sassuolo (1.64) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH 0 - Sassuolo (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Sassuolo (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 13 - 54.2%). Sassuolo (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Motta E. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 17. Tavares N. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 32. Cataldi D. 24. Taylor K. 18. Isaksen G. 27. Maldini D. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	49. Muric A. (G) 25. Coulibaly W. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 23. Garcia U. 90. Kone I. 35. Lipani L. 42. Thorstvedt K. 10. Berardi D. (C) 8. Nzola M. 45. Lauriente A.
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 22. Cancellieri M. 19. Dia B. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 99. Giacomone G. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 29. Lazzari M. 14. Noslin T. 4. Patric 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 25. Provstgaard O. 28. Przyborek A. 20. Ratkov P.	50. Bakola D. 3. Doig J. 44. Iannoni E. 18. Matic N. 24. Moro L. 66. Pedro Felipe 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 13. Turati S. (G) 7. Volpato C. 40. Vranckx A. 6. Walukiewicz S. 16. Zacchi G. (G)
Coaches
Sarri M.	Grosso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Maldini D. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Lauriente A. ⚽, Thorstvedt K. (A),
37', Lipani L. 🟨,
38', Cataldi D. ↓, Patric ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lipani L. ↓, Matic N. ↑,
46', Romagnoli A. ↓, Provstgaard O. ↑,
58', Garcia U. 🟨,
65', Maldini D. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
68', Nzola M. ↓, Moro L. ↑,
68', Coulibaly W. ↓, Walukiewicz S. ↑,
69', Garcia U. ↓, Doig J. ↑,
79', Zaccagni M. ↓, Pedro ↑,
79', Isaksen G. ↓, Cancellieri M. ↑,
83', Kone I. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
86', Lauriente A. 🟨,
88', Walukiewicz S. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, Marusic A. ⚽, Cancellieri M. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 3.

Lazio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sassuolo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lazio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lazio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lazio: Gigot S. (Ankle Injury) Provedel I. (Shoulder Injury) Rovella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Sassuolo: Boloca D. (Muscle Injury) Cande F. (Knee Injury) Fadera A. (Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury) Pinamonti A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lazio: Basic T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.9:1.2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lazio: 0.93% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.62%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Coppa Italia
04.03.26	Lazio - Atalanta	2:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.03.26	Torino - Lazio	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cagliari - Lazio	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
11.02.26	Bologna - Lazio	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTLW
- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
01.03.26	Sassuolo - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Sassuolo - Verona	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Udinese - Sassuolo	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Sassuolo - Inter Milan	0:5 ✺
31.01.26	Pisa - Sassuolo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Sassuolo - Lazio	1:0
26.05.24	Lazio - Sassuolo	1:1
21.10.23	Sassuolo - Lazio	0:2
03.05.23	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:0
15.01.23	Sassuolo - Lazio	0:2
02.04.22	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:1
12.12.21	Sassuolo - Lazio	2:1

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