Match Info

Serie A - Round 19

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
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Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab


	Lazio		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.58	2.98	3.05	Watch
	2.55	3	3.11	Watch
	2.45	2.88	3
	2.66	3.11	3.15
	2.54	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.15)	3.03 ↓ (3.23)	3.12 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
38%

Draw
31.4%

Fiorentina
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

29.4%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

29.8%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lazio's form might have worsened.

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lazio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.5%	32.1%	9.4%

Lazio - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 31 - 58.5%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 5 - 9.4%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 32.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lazio: 45.2% – 71.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.24) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Provedel I. (G) 29. Lazzari M. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 3. Pellegrini Lu. 8. Guendouzi M. 32. Cataldi D. 26. Basic T. 18. Isaksen G. 22. Cancellieri M. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
21. Belahyane R. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 35. Mandas C. (G) 9. Pedro 25. Provstgaard O. 6. Rovella N. 63. Serra F. 17. Tavares N. 5. Vecino M.	53. Christensen O. (G) 29. Fortini N. 20. Kean M. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 18. Mari P. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 6. Ranieri L. 7. Sohm S. 19. Solomon M.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Pongracic M. 🟨,
21', Gosens R. 🟨,
26', Cancellieri M. 🟨,
29', Basic T. ↓, Vecino M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
52', 1 - 0, Cataldi D. ⚽, Vecino M. (A),
55', Parisi F. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Gosens R. ⚽, Fagioli N. (A),
60', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
68', Gosens R. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
69', Ndour C. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
71', Fagioli N. 🟨,
72', Isaksen G. ↓, Pedro ↑,
80', Lazzari M. ↓, Hysaj E. ↑,
83', Zaccagni M. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Gudmundsson A. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Pellegrini Lu. 🟨,
90+2', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Mari P. ↑,
90+2', Parisi F. ↓, Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Pedro (Penalty Awarded),
90+8', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lazio: Dele-Bashiru F. (International duty) Dia B. (International duty) Gigot S. (Ankle Injury) Marusic A. (Red Card) Noslin T. (Red Card)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Dzeko E. (Foot Injury) Fazzini J. (Ankle Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Richardson A. (Inactive) Viti M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lazio: Patric (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:25. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lazio: 0.93% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 44.16%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
04.01.26	Lazio - Napoli	0:2 ✺
27.12.25	Udinese - Lazio	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Lazio - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Parma - Lazio	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lazio - Bologna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTTWT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Fiorentina - Verona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
26.01.25	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:2
22.09.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
26.02.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
30.10.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:0
29.01.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:1
10.10.22	Fiorentina - Lazio	0:4
05.02.22	Fiorentina - Lazio	0:3

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