Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Stade de la Tuiliere (Lausanne)

Referee: D'hondt L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Belgium	VOOsport World 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	M4 Sport
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Lausanne-Sport		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	1.9
	3.55	3.7	1.92
	3.69	3.81	1.98
	3.76	3.9	1.91	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.95
	3.87	3.79	1.97
	3.66	3.8	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↓ (6.03)	3.73 ↓ (4.93)	1.93 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lausanne-Sport
25.9%

Draw
25.3%

Fiorentina
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

19.7%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

19%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lausanne-Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lausanne-Sport's performance.

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fiorentina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lausanne-Sport than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lausanne-Sport that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fiorentina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
49.1%	13.2%	37.7%

Lausanne Sport - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Lausanne-Sport will win (votes: 26 - 51%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 19 - 37.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lausanne-Sport: 37.3% – 64.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Lausanne-Sport (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Fiorentina (votes: 12 - 46.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lausanne-Sport (1.68) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Lausanne-Sport (3.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Lausanne-Sport (votes: 18 - 60%). Fiorentina (votes: 12 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Letica K. (G) 2. Soppy B. 14. Mouanga K. (C) 71. Sow K. 93. Fofana S. 38. Sigua G. 8. Roche J. 11. Butler-Oyedeji N. 27. Lekoueiry B. 9. Bair T. 22. Kana-Biyik E.	30. Martinelli T. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 26. Viti M. 60. Kouadio E. 24. Richardson A. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 7. Sohm S. 99. Kouame C. 9. Dzeko E. (C) 91. Piccoli R.
Substitutes
20. Abdallah H. 7. Ajdini A. 50. Bittarelli L. 1. Castella T. (G) 10. Custodio O. 57. Franchi E. 56. Lachhab A. 54. Lippo R. 47. N'Diaye S. 5. Okoh B. 18. Poaty M. 17. Traore S.	15. Comuzzo P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 2. Dodo 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M. 23. Kospo E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 65. Parisi F. 6. Ranieri L.
Coaches
Zeidler P.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Kouame C. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Sigua G. ⚽, Kana-Biyik E. (A),
70', Richardson A. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
70', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
70', Dzeko E. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
70', Kana-Biyik E. ↓, Ajdini A. ↑,
70', Sigua G. ↓, Custodio O. ↑,
73', Kean M. 🟨,
79', Butler-Oyedeji N. ↓, Poaty M. ↑,
83', Kouadio E. ↓, Dodo ↑,
85', Fortini N. 🟨,
86', Fofana S. ↓, Abdallah H. ↑,
90', Lekoueiry B. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Lausanne-Sport has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fiorentina has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fiorentina is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lausanne-Sport: Al Saad M. (Foot Injury) Beloko N. (Muscle Injury) Bruchez E. (Injury) Diakite G. (International duty)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Fazzini J. (Ankle Injury) Gosens R. (Thigh Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Ndour C. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Lausanne-Sport: Custodio O. (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lausanne-Sport
Swiss Super League
14.12.25	Basel - Lausanne-Sport	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	KuPS Kuopio - Lausanne-Sport	0:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
07.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	0:0 ✺
Swiss Cup
03.12.25	Yverdon - Lausanne-Sport	2:1 ET ✺
Swiss Super League
30.11.25	Lausanne-Sport - Thun	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTTLW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Fiorentina - Verona	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Fiorentina - Dynamo Kyiv	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Fiorentina - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL

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