Match Info

Serie A - Round 17

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 4
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360, VTVcab


	Parma		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.12	Watch
	3.44	3.2	2.38
	3.66	3.29	2.13	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.05
	3.81	3.46	2.09
	3.75	3.2	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (3.36)	3.29 ↑ (3.03)	2.13 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Parma
26.2%

Draw
29%

Fiorentina
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

31.3%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

31%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	45.8%	41.7%

Parma - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 6 - 12.5%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 20 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 45.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.7% – 59.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Parma (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 1 - 10%). Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Corvi E. (G) 27. Britschgi S. 39. Circati A. (C) 5. Valenti L. 14. Valeri E. 10. Bernabe A. 16. Keita M. 22. Sorensen O. 17. Ondrejka J. 9. Pellegrino M. 7. Benedyczak A.	43. de Gea D. (C) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 26. Viti M. 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
11. Almqvist P. 19. Begic T. 25. Cremaschi B. 32. Cutrone P. 15. Del Prato E. 30. Djuric M. 8. Estevez N. 13. Guaita V. (G) 23. Hernani 18. Lovik M. 24. Ordonez C. 21. Oristanio G. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 63. Trabucchi N. 37. Troilo M.	9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 21. Gosens R. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 91. Piccoli R. 7. Sohm S.
Coaches
Cuesta C.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Circati A. 🟨,
22', Mandragora R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Viti M. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Sorensen O. ⚽, Pellegrino M. (A),
63', Mandragora R. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
68', Ondrejka J. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
68', Benedyczak A. ↓, Oristanio G. ↑,
76', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
76', Parisi F. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
81', Bernabe A. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
86', Comuzzo P. ↓, Kouadio E. ↑,
86', Corvi E. 🟨,
90+3', Pongracic M. 🟨,
90+4', Keita M. ↓, Cremaschi B. ↑,
90+4', Pellegrino M. ↓, Djuric M. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Parma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fiorentina will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Parma: Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ndiaye A. (Groin Injury) Suzuki Z. (Finger Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Thigh Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Mari P. (Calf Injury) Ranieri L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Parma: Circati A. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Fazzini J. (Ankle Injury) Mandragora R. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Parma won 4 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.4%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
13.12.25	Parma - Lazio	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Pisa - Parma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.12.25	Bologna - Parma	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
29.11.25	Parma - Udinese	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Verona - Parma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLLW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Fiorentina - Verona	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Fiorentina - Dynamo Kyiv	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
13.04.25	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0
17.08.24	Parma - Fiorentina	1:1
Coppa Italia
06.12.23	Fiorentina - Parma	3:2 penalties
Club Friendly
20.07.23	Fiorentina - Parma	1:1
Italian Serie A
07.03.21	Fiorentina - Parma	3:3
07.11.20	Parma - Fiorentina	0:0
05.07.20	Parma - Fiorentina	1:2

Upcoming Matches