Match Info

Serie A - Round 16

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
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Armenia	Fast Sports
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Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
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Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
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Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
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Japan	DAZN Japan
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Kuwait	Shasha
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
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Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab


	Fiorentina		Udinese

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.3
	2.12	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.27	3.34	3.45
	2.11	3.25	3.76	Watch
	2.1	3	3.5
	2.24	3.3	3.77
	2.1	3.2	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.96)	3.22 ↓ (3.6)	3.63 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
44.1%

Draw
29.6%

Udinese
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

26.4%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

23.8%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Udinese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Fiorentina - Udinese Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 44 - 68.8%). Udinese will win (votes: 10 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 15.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 57.4% – 80.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.07) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.25 - Udinese (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Udinese (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (21 of 28 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 22 - 68.8%). Udinese (votes: 5 - 15.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 15.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. 2. Dodo 27. Ndour C. 44. Fagioli N. 8. Mandragora R. 65. Parisi F. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.	40. Okoye M. (G) 31. Kristensen T. 27. Kabasele C. 28. Solet O. 59. Zanoli A. 24. Piotrowski J. 8. Karlstrom J. (C) 32. Ekkelenkamp J. 13. Bertola N. 10. Zaniolo N. 9. Davis K.
Substitutes
9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.	17. Bravo I. 18. Buksa A. 29. Camara A. 19. Ehizibue K. 2. Goglichidze S. 7. Gueye I. 11. Kamara H. 4. Lovric S. 38. Miller L. 1. Nunziante A. (G) 93. Padelli D. (G) 16. Palma M. 90. Sava R. (G) 6. Zarraga O.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Runjaic K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', Okoye M. 🟥,
10', Kabasele C. ↓, Sava R. ↑,
21', 1 - 0, Mandragora R. ⚽, Fagioli N. (A),
39', Zanoli A. 🟨,
40', Parisi F. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Gudmundsson A. ⚽, Parisi F. (A),
45+5', 3 - 0, Ndour C. ⚽, Fagioli N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Zaniolo N. ↓, Lovric S. ↑,
46', Zanoli A. ↓, Kamara H. ↑,
53', Mandragora R. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
56', 4 - 0, Kean M. ⚽,
65', Ranieri L. 🟨,
65', Davis K. ↓, Buksa A. ↑,
66', Ekkelenkamp J. ↓, Gueye I. ↑,
66', 4 - 1, Solet O. ⚽, Piotrowski J. (A),
68', 5 - 1, Kean M. ⚽, Dodo (A),
71', Parisi F. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
71', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
82', Comuzzo P. ↓, Viti M. ↑,
82', Fagioli N. ↓, Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↑,
85', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

Fiorentina has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Udinese has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fiorentina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Thigh Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Udinese: Atta A. (Thigh Injury) Bayo V. (International duty) Modesto R. (International duty) Zemura J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Fazzini J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Udinese: Kamara H. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Fiorentina - Verona	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Fiorentina - Dynamo Kyiv	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL
- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Udinese - Napoli	1:0 ✺
08.12.25	Udinese - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.12.25	Juventus - Udinese	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
29.11.25	Parma - Udinese	0:2 ✺
22.11.25	Udinese - Bologna	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
25.05.25	Udinese - Fiorentina	2:3
23.12.24	Fiorentina - Udinese	1:2
14.01.24	Fiorentina - Udinese	2:2
24.09.23	Udinese - Fiorentina	0:2
14.05.23	Fiorentina - Udinese	2:0
31.08.22	Udinese - Fiorentina	1:0
27.04.22	Fiorentina - Udinese	0:4

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