Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Kabakov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
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France	Canal+ Live 6
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Israel	Sport 3
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Sweden	Disney+
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Fiorentina		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4
	1.85	3.45	4.15
	1.88	3.6	4.42
	1.8	3.69	4.52	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4
	1.84	3.65	4.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.7)	3.55 ↓ (3.86)	4.23 ↓ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
51.2%

Draw
26.5%

Raków Częstochowa
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

24.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	4.2%	8.3%

Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Raków (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fiorentina (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fiorentina (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (63 of 71 users predict this - 88.73%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.37% – 96.09%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 30 - 90.9%). Raków (votes: 3 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Christensen O. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 23. Struski K. 6. Repka O. 8. Pienko T. 9. Makuch P. 18. Brunes J. 10. Lopez I.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 61. Braschi R. 43. de Gea D. (G) 2. Dodo 44. Fagioli N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 17. Harrison J. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 67. Sadotti E.	11. Adriano 24. Arsenic Z. 5. Bulat M. 31. Czeremski D. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 35. Ilenic M. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G)
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Struski K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', Ranieri L. 🟨,
58', Gosens R. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
58', Fazzini J. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
59', Lopez I. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
59', Pienko T. ↓, Arsenic Z. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Brunes J. ⚽, Makuch P. (A),
62', 1 - 1, Ndour C. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),
68', Fortini N. ↓, Dodo ↑,
70', Struski K. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
74', Tomczyk L. 🟨,
79', Brunes J. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
81', Tudor F. 🟨,
82', Piccoli R. ↓, Braschi R. ↑,
82', Mandragora R. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
85', Parisi F. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Gudmundsson A. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', Fagioli N. 🟨,
90+6', Zych O. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In recent matches, Fiorentina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Raków is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Raków may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fiorentina is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Kean M. (Muscle Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury) Pongracic M. (Yellow Cards) Rugani D. (Inactive) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Raków: Abraham O. (Inactive) Brusberg I. (Inactive) Czeremski D. (Inactive) Dawidowicz P. (Inactive) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Napieraj J. (Inactive) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Raków: Silva J. C. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.99%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLWW
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
21.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWT

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