Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 7

Date: 2 June 2024, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)


	Fortaleza		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.8	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.7
	2.1	3.2	3.75
	2.16	3.21	3.93
	2.14	3.21	3.93
	2.1	3.1	3.5
	2.14	3.14	3.77	Watch
	2.07	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.21)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	3.75 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
44.9%

Draw
29.8%

Athletico Paranaense
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

29.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

31%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	23.5%	17.6%

Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 13. Kuscevic B. 25. Cardona T. 36. Felipe Jonatan 28. Pedro Augusto 35. Hercules 8. Emmanuel Martinez 26. Breno Lopes 79. Renato Kayzer 39. Machuca I.	1. Bento (G) 22. Madson 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 6. Fernando 26. Erick 23. Felipinho 88. Christian 11. Nikao 92. Pablo 14. Canobbio A.
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 6. Bruno Pacheco 37. Kauan 9. Lucero J. 16. Matheus Rossetto 21. Moises 32. Pedro Rocha 7. Pochettino T. 23. Santos (G) 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison	80. Alex Santana 7. Di Yorio L. 3. Gabriel 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 24. Leo Linck (G) 45. Lucas Belezi 10. Zapelli B. 30. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Felipinho 🟨,
42', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
43', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Kuscevic B. ⚽, Machuca I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pablo ↓, Julimar ↑,
46', Felipinho ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
47', Madson 🟨,
49', Christian 🟨,
62', Machuca I. ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
62', Pedro Augusto ↓, Ze Welison ↑,
66', Canobbio A. ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
66', Christian ↓, Ze Vitor ↑,
69', Ze Vitor 🟨,
78', Renato Kayzer ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
79', Breno Lopes ↓, Moises ↑,
81', Fernando ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
85', Felipe Jonatan ↓, Bruno Pacheco ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Fortaleza will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Calebe (Injury) Lucas Sasha (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Thiago Heleno (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortaleza won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.24	Fortaleza - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.05.24	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	1:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	4:3 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.24	Boca Juniors - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.05.24	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWLTT
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa Sudamericana
30.05.24	Athletico Paranaense - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1 ✺
15.05.24	Athletico Paranaense - Danubio	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.05.24	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.24	Rayo Zuliano - Athletico Paranaense	1:5 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
08.11.23	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1
09.07.23	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
05.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1
12.06.22	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
23.10.21	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	3:0
03.07.21	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	2:1
07.11.20	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	2:1

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