Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 4

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)


	Fortaleza CEIF		Orsomarso

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	6.25	Watch
	1.46	4.05	6.3	Watch
	1.52	4.05	6.62
	2.88	2.99	2.58	Watch
	1.44	3.6	6.5
	1.43	3.82	7.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.5)	3.79 ↓ (4)	5.91 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza CEIF
57.4%

Draw
25.9%

Orsomarso
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

22.4%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

19%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Orsomarso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza CEIF that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Fortaleza CEIF - Orsomarso Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Matamba D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
84', 1 - 1, Salas J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 5.

Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Orsomarso is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fortaleza is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:4. (average 3.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:4. (average 4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Copa
11.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
08.05.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Leones	4:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Fortaleza CEIF - América de Cali	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLL
- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Copa
15.05.26	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
12.05.26	Leones - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Orsomarso - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.04.26	Orsomarso - Leones	0:0 ✺
13.04.26	Bogotá - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
05.08.23	Orsomarso - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1
17.02.23	Fortaleza CEIF - Orsomarso	3:1
30.09.22	Orsomarso - Fortaleza CEIF	0:4
07.03.22	Fortaleza CEIF - Orsomarso	6:2
25.09.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Orsomarso	4:0
14.03.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Orsomarso	3:1

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