What is the expert prediction for Freiburg vs Celta de Vigo?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Freiburg vs Celta de Vigo. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

How to watch Freiburg vs Celta de Vigo live?

Check our broadcast section for official streaming options and live coverage details.

Freiburg vs Celta de Vigo Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	RTL, RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Japan	Wowow Prime
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+ Sport 3
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Claro Sports, Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RSI La 2, RTL, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360


	Freiburg		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.6
	2.35	3.25	3.1
	2.25	3.2	3.5
	2.24	3.22	3.68
	2.22	3.27	3.45	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.2	3.28	3.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.3)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	3.49 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Freiburg
42.9%

Draw
29.7%

Celta de Vigo
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

28.2%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.9%	14.8%	9.3%

banner

Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 40 - 76.9%). Celta will win (votes: 5 - 9.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 65.4% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Celta (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Celta (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.	13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 4. Aidoo J. 20. Alonso M. 3. Mingueza O. 22. Sotelo H. 6. Moriba I. 5. Carreira S. 9. Jutgla F. 7. Iglesias B. (C) 19. Swedberg W.
Substitutes
30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M. 7. Scherhant D. 69. Tarnutzer R.	36. Antanon A. 10. Aspas I. 11. Cervi F. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 29. Lago Y. 30. Lopez F. 14. Nunez A. 15. Vecino M. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Schuster J.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Manzambi J. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Beste J. ⚽, Matanovic I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Swedberg W. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
61', Sotelo H. ↓, Vecino M. ↑,
73', Jutgla F. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
73', Iglesias B. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
74', Grifo V. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
74', Suzuki Y. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Ginter M. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
89', Beste J. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
90+5', Eggestein M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Osterhage P. (Knee Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Alvarez H. (Injury) Roman M. (Foot Injury) Rueda J. (Yellow Cards) Starfelt C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Makengo J. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

banner

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Freiburg: 18.2%

Last Results with these Odds

Celta de Vigo - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 30.09%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLL
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.26	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Lyon - Celta de Vigo	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.03.26	Betis - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWTT

Upcoming Matches