Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.6
	2.35	3.25	3.1
	2.25	3.2	3.5
	2.24	3.22	3.68
	2.22	3.27	3.45	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.2	3.28	3.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.3)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	3.49 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
42.9%

Draw
29.7%

Celta de Vigo
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

28.2%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.9%	14.8%	9.3%

Freiburg - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 40 - 76.9%). Celta will win (votes: 5 - 9.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 65.4% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.5 - Celta (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Celta (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.	13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 4. Aidoo J. 20. Alonso M. 3. Mingueza O. 22. Sotelo H. 6. Moriba I. 5. Carreira S. 9. Jutgla F. 7. Iglesias B. (C) 19. Swedberg W.
Substitutes
30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M. 7. Scherhant D. 69. Tarnutzer R.	36. Antanon A. 10. Aspas I. 11. Cervi F. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 29. Lago Y. 30. Lopez F. 14. Nunez A. 15. Vecino M. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Schuster J.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Manzambi J. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Beste J. ⚽, Matanovic I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Swedberg W. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
61', Sotelo H. ↓, Vecino M. ↑,
73', Jutgla F. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
73', Iglesias B. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
74', Grifo V. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
74', Suzuki Y. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Ginter M. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
89', Beste J. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
90+5', Eggestein M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Osterhage P. (Knee Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Alvarez H. (Injury) Roman M. (Foot Injury) Rueda J. (Yellow Cards) Starfelt C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Makengo J. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Celta Vigo: 4.38%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLL
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.26	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Lyon - Celta de Vigo	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.03.26	Betis - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWTT

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