Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	RTL, RTL Nitro, Servus TV, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 4, RTBF Tipik
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Canada	16:00	DAZN Canada
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Oneplay, Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN 4
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 4, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	21:00	RTL, RTL+, RTL Nitro, Servus TV
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN 4
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 5
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	VIX App


	Genk		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.45
	2.6	3.5	2.6
	3	3.25	2.52
	3.05	3.3	2.55
	2.9	3.24	2.54
	2.9	3	2.45
	3.09	3.3	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.63)	3.26 ↓ (3.38)	2.51 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
32.6%

Draw
29.4%

Freiburg
38%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

28%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

28.5%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	30.3%	54.5%

Genk - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 5 - 15.6%). Freiburg will win (votes: 18 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 28.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 39.1% – 73.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Freiburg (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Genk (2.10) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Freiburg (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lawal T. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 44. Kongolo J. 6. Smets M. 18. Kayembe J. 20. Karetsas K. 8. Heynen B. (C) 21. Bangoura I. 38. Heymans D. 23. Bibout A. 32. Adedeji-Sternberg N.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 6. Osterhage P. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
99. Erabi J. 10. Ito J. 19. Medina Y. 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 34. Palacios A. 3. Sadick M. 24. Sattlberger N. 14. Sor Y. 7. Steuckers J. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G) 30. Yokoyama A.	27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 7. Scherhant D. 65. Steinmann K. 69. Tarnutzer R.
Coaches
Hayen N.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, El Ouahdi Z. ⚽, Heynen B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
63', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
71', Suzuki Y. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
74', El Ouahdi Z. 🟨,
77', Kongolo J. ↓, Sadick M. ↑,
77', Kayembe J. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
77', Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
80', Ogbus B. 🟨,
83', Bibout A. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Genk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Eggestein M. (Red Card) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Kubler L. (Hamstring Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Genk - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Freiburg - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
07.03.26	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Genk - Gent	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Genk - Dinamo Zagreb	3:3 ET ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
22.02.26	Genk - Standard Liège	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Genk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLLW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
10.02.26	Hertha Berlin - Freiburg	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWLW

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