Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	RTL, RTL Nitro, Servus TV, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	Play Sports 4, RTBF Tipik
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	RTL, RTL+, RTL Nitro, Servus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 5
Turkey	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Genk		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.45
	2.6	3.5	2.6
	3	3.25	2.52
	3.05	3.3	2.55
	2.9	3.24	2.54
	2.9	3	2.45
	3.09	3.3	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.63)	3.26 ↓ (3.38)	2.51 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Genk
32.6%

Draw
29.4%

Freiburg
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

29%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	30.3%	54.5%

Genk - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 5 - 15.6%). Freiburg will win (votes: 18 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 28.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 39.1% – 73.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Freiburg (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Genk (2.10) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Freiburg (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lawal T. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 44. Kongolo J. 6. Smets M. 18. Kayembe J. 20. Karetsas K. 8. Heynen B. (C) 21. Bangoura I. 38. Heymans D. 23. Bibout A. 32. Adedeji-Sternberg N.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 6. Osterhage P. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
99. Erabi J. 10. Ito J. 19. Medina Y. 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 34. Palacios A. 3. Sadick M. 24. Sattlberger N. 14. Sor Y. 7. Steuckers J. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G) 30. Yokoyama A.	27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 7. Scherhant D. 65. Steinmann K. 69. Tarnutzer R.
Coaches
Hayen N.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, El Ouahdi Z. ⚽, Heynen B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
63', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
71', Suzuki Y. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
74', El Ouahdi Z. 🟨,
77', Kongolo J. ↓, Sadick M. ↑,
77', Kayembe J. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
77', Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
80', Ogbus B. 🟨,
83', Bibout A. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Genk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Eggestein M. (Red Card) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Kubler L. (Hamstring Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Genk - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Freiburg - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
07.03.26	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Genk - Gent	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Genk - Dinamo Zagreb	3:3 ET ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
22.02.26	Genk - Standard Liège	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Genk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLLW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
10.02.26	Hertha Berlin - Freiburg	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWLW

Upcoming Matches