Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lambrechts E. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Azerbaijan	00:00	Idman TV
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	16:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	ESPN 3
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN 3
Finland	22:00	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport, Free, New World TV
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sport 3, Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Iran	23:30	Persiana Sports
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport MIX
Kazakhstan	02:00	Qazsport
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Premier League
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN 3
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	21:00	JOJ plus
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport Football
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	VIX App


	Celta de Vigo		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.9
	2.1	3.5	3.4
	2.05	3.5	3.75
	2.02	3.56	3.95
	2	3.48	3.85	Watch
	2	3.3	3.75
	2.04	3.53	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)	3.48 ↓ (3.62)	3.82 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
47.4%

Draw
27.5%

Lyon
25.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.3%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

26%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.5%	12.9%	22.6%

Celta de Vigo - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 39 - 65%). Lyon will win (votes: 14 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celta: 52.9% – 77.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Lyon (votes: 4 - 19%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Celta (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Celta (1.23) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Lyon (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 19 - 67.9%). Lyon (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 17. Rueda J. 15. Vecino M. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 10. Aspas I. (C) 19. Swedberg W. 7. Iglesias B.	1. Greif D. (G) 60. Kango S. 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 23. Morton T. 9. Endrick 99. Nartey N. 16. Abner Vinicius 77. Yaremchuk R.
Substitutes
4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 5. Carreira S. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 9. Jutgla F. 30. Lopez F. 14. Nunez A. 21. Ristic M. 22. Sotelo H. 1. Villar I. (G)	39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 46. Goncalves T. 84. Hamdani A. 45. Himbert R. 7. Karabec A. 62. Konan Y. (G) 5. Mangala O. 44. Merah K. 6. Tessmann T.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Iglesias B. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Rueda J. ⚽, Swedberg W. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aspas I. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
46', Rueda J. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
48', Mingueza O. 🟨,
53', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
55', Iglesias B. 🟨,
63', Mingueza O. ↓, Ristic M. ↑,
67', Swedberg W. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
67', Tagliafico N. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,
70', Himbert R. ↓, Karabec A. ↑,
77', Kango S. 🟨,
85', Morton T. ↓, Mangala O. ↑,
85', Kango S. ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
85', Nartey N. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Endrick ⚽, Mata C. (A),
90+1', Moriba I. ↓, Sotelo H. ↑,
90+3', Vecino M. 🟨,
90+3', Alonso M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Celta is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lyon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Celta might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Celta: Cervi F. (Coach's decision) Lago Y. (Coach's decision) Roman M. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kamara N. (Inactive) Kluivert R. (Hamstring Injury) Maitland-Niles A. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lyon	3	2	0	1	5:6	-1	6
25	Celta Vigo	3	1	0	2	3:4	-1	3

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Lyon: 3.33% Celta Vigo: 3.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Celta de Vigo - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 45.27%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.26	Celta de Vigo - Mallorca	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWW
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lyon - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.07.23	Celta de Vigo - Lyon	1:0

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