Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Lambrechts E. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Celta de Vigo		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.9
	2.1	3.5	3.4
	2.05	3.5	3.75
	2.02	3.56	3.95
	2	3.48	3.85	Watch
	2	3.3	3.75
	2.04	3.53	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)	3.48 ↓ (3.62)	3.82 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
47.4%

Draw
27.5%

Lyon
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.3%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

26%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.5%	12.9%	22.6%

Celta de Vigo - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 39 - 65%). Lyon will win (votes: 14 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celta: 52.9% – 77.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Lyon (votes: 4 - 19%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Celta (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Celta (1.23) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Lyon (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 19 - 67.9%). Lyon (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 17. Rueda J. 15. Vecino M. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 10. Aspas I. (C) 19. Swedberg W. 7. Iglesias B.	1. Greif D. (G) 60. Kango S. 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 23. Morton T. 9. Endrick 99. Nartey N. 16. Abner Vinicius 77. Yaremchuk R.
Substitutes
4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 5. Carreira S. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 9. Jutgla F. 30. Lopez F. 14. Nunez A. 21. Ristic M. 22. Sotelo H. 1. Villar I. (G)	39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 46. Goncalves T. 84. Hamdani A. 45. Himbert R. 7. Karabec A. 62. Konan Y. (G) 5. Mangala O. 44. Merah K. 6. Tessmann T.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Iglesias B. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Rueda J. ⚽, Swedberg W. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aspas I. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
46', Rueda J. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
48', Mingueza O. 🟨,
53', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
55', Iglesias B. 🟨,
63', Mingueza O. ↓, Ristic M. ↑,
67', Swedberg W. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
67', Tagliafico N. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,
70', Himbert R. ↓, Karabec A. ↑,
77', Kango S. 🟨,
85', Morton T. ↓, Mangala O. ↑,
85', Kango S. ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
85', Nartey N. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Endrick ⚽, Mata C. (A),
90+1', Moriba I. ↓, Sotelo H. ↑,
90+3', Vecino M. 🟨,
90+3', Alonso M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Celta is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lyon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Celta might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Celta: Cervi F. (Coach's decision) Lago Y. (Coach's decision) Roman M. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kamara N. (Inactive) Kluivert R. (Hamstring Injury) Maitland-Niles A. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Celta Vigo: 4.87% Lyon: 3.61%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Celta de Vigo - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 45.27%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.26	Celta de Vigo - Mallorca	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWW
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lyon - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.07.23	Celta de Vigo - Lyon	1:0

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