Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.6	4	Watch
	1.9	3.55	4.15
	1.92	3.65	4.42
	2.06	3.49	3.65	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4	Watch
	1.94	3.68	4.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.14)	3.55 ↑ (3.36)	4.05 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
49.5%

Draw
26.9%

Union Berlin
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.3%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.9%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Freiburg's performance.

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Freiburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	16.7%	11.1%

Freiburg - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 26 - 72.2%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 57.6% – 86.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Union Berlin (3.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB, 2nd Half - Freiburg (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. (C) 44. Manzambi J. 22. Irie C. 9. Holer L. 7. Scherhant D. 31. Matanovic I.	31. Raab M. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 34. Nsoki S. 39. Kohn D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. 9. Burcu L. 21. Skarke T. 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.
Substitutes
19. Beste J. 32. Grifo V. 30. Gunter C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 14. Suzuki Y.	7. Burke O. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 18. Juranovic J. 6. Kemlein A. 25. Klaus C. (G) 33. Kral A. 3. Markgraf A. 17. Preu D. 15. Rothe T.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Kohn D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Holer L. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
64', Ansah I. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
64', Skarke T. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
77', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
77', Irie C. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
80', Trimmel C. ↓, Juranovic J. ↑,
80', Haberer J. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
86', Makengo J. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
87', Burcu L. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 1, Jeong Woo-Yeong ⚽, Nsoki S. (A),
90+3', Burcu L. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:28. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.4:1.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.72% Union Berlin: 0.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5:17	-12	4

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 44.41%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Union Berlin - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLWL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
08.03.26	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Union Berlin - Freiburg	0:0
30.03.25	Freiburg - Union Berlin	1:2
08.11.24	Union Berlin - Freiburg	0:0
18.05.24	Union Berlin - Freiburg	2:1
13.01.24	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:0
13.05.23	Union Berlin - Freiburg	4:2
13.11.22	Freiburg - Union Berlin	4:1

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