Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3	2.85
	2.68	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.77	3.1	2.92
	2.69	3.09	2.84	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.76	3.11	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.62)	3.04 ↓ (3.11)	2.87 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
35.3%

Draw
31.4%

Freiburg
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

30.8%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	24.2%	21.2%

St. Pauli - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 17 - 53.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 7 - 21.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 35.8% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 27. Hountondji A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Ando T. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Sinani D. ⚽, Ando T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
46', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
69', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Matanovic I. ⚽,
80', Blessin A. 🟨,
84', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Hountondji A. ↑,
84', Rasmussen M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
86', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
89', Ando T. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
89', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90+8', Suzuki Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTWWL
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1
15.02.25	St. Pauli - Freiburg	0:1
28.09.24	Freiburg - St. Pauli	0:3
German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ET
Club Friendly
07.10.21	Freiburg - St. Pauli	3:0
German 2 Bundesliga
10.04.16	Freiburg - St. Pauli	4:3
25.10.15	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:0

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