Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 5, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	13:30	Disney+
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect
Austria	17:30	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bolivia	12:30	ESPN 5
Brazil	13:30	RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	11:30	ESPN 5
Finland	18:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	17:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	16:30	Viaplay
India	22:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	23:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	17:30	Arena Premium 4
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	21:30	Medianet
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	10:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	17:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	21:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	02:30	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	12:30	ESPN 5
Peru	11:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Vietnam	23:30	TV 360
International	16:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3	2.85
	2.68	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.77	3.1	2.92
	2.69	3.09	2.84	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.76	3.11	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.62)	3.04 ↓ (3.11)	2.87 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
35.3%

Draw
31.4%

Freiburg
33.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

30.6%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	24.2%	21.2%

St. Pauli - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 17 - 53.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 7 - 21.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 35.8% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 27. Hountondji A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Ando T. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Sinani D. ⚽, Ando T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
46', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
69', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Matanovic I. ⚽,
80', Blessin A. 🟨,
84', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Hountondji A. ↑,
84', Rasmussen M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
86', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
89', Ando T. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
89', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90+8', Suzuki Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16:9	7	13

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.75%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTWWL
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1
15.02.25	St. Pauli - Freiburg	0:1
28.09.24	Freiburg - St. Pauli	0:3
German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ET
Club Friendly
07.10.21	Freiburg - St. Pauli	3:0
German 2 Bundesliga
10.04.16	Freiburg - St. Pauli	4:3
25.10.15	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:0

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