What is the expert prediction for St. Pauli vs Freiburg?

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St. Pauli vs Freiburg Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, March 22, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 5, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
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Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
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Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3	2.85
	2.68	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.77	3.1	2.92
	2.69	3.09	2.84	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.8
	2.76	3.11	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.62)	3.04 ↓ (3.11)	2.87 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
35.3%

Draw
31.4%

Freiburg
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

30.8%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	24.2%	21.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 17 - 53.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 7 - 21.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 35.8% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): St. Pauli will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 27. Hountondji A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 17. Kubler L. 3. Lienhart P. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Ando T. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Sinani D. ⚽, Ando T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
46', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
69', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Matanovic I. ⚽,
80', Blessin A. 🟨,
84', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Hountondji A. ↑,
84', Rasmussen M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
86', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
89', Ando T. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
89', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90+8', Suzuki Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	42:47	-5	40
16	St. Pauli	30	6	8	16	26:51	-25	26

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 33.21%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTWWL
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1
15.02.25	St. Pauli - Freiburg	0:1
28.09.24	Freiburg - St. Pauli	0:3
German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ET
Club Friendly
07.10.21	Freiburg - St. Pauli	3:0
German 2 Bundesliga
10.04.16	Freiburg - St. Pauli	4:3
25.10.15	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:0

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