Match Info

Primera Division - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO


	Fuerte San Francisco		Luis Ángel Firpo

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.90	1.52
	5.25	3.70	1.53
	5.40	3.95	1.59
	5.7	4.12	1.53	Watch
	5.10	3.85	1.57
	5.00	4.00	1.62	Watch
	5.00	3.85	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↓ (5.25)	3.91 ↑ (3.7)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuerte San Francisco
17.6%

Draw
23.4%

Luis Ángel Firpo
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.1%

24.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

23.6%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuerte San Francisco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Luis Ángel Firpo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fuerte San Francisco than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luis Ángel Firpo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Fuerte San Francisco - Luis Ángel Firpo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Arizala Dajomes W. Y. ⚽,
30', Rugama W. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
89', 0 - 2, Valencia J. ⚽,
90+4', 0 - 3, Guevara D. ⚽,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 12th and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Primera Division (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fuerte won 0.

Fuerte is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Luis Ángel Firpo have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fuerte could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Luis Ángel Firpo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Luis Ángel Firpo is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Fuerte has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:28 (averaging 0.6:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fuerte against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 4:12 goals (averaging 0.6:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Luis Angel Firpo	13	7	4	2	23:9	14	25
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9:23	-14	9

Last Results with these Odds

Luis Ángel Firpo - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 58.65%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Fuerte San Francisco
El Salvador Primera Division
27.09.26	Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca - Fuerte San Francisco	0:0 ✺
23.09.26	Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	INCA-Aruba - Fuerte San Francisco	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Municipal Limeño	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Fuerte San Francisco - CD FAS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTLLL
- Luis Ángel Firpo
El Salvador Primera Division
26.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Águila	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Cacahuatique	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Atlético Balboa	3:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
17.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Luis Ángel Firpo	3:0 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
13.09.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Isidro Metapán	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

El Salvador Primera Division
29.07.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Fuerte San Francisco	4:0
05.04.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Luis Ángel Firpo	0:2
07.02.26	Luis Ángel Firpo - Fuerte San Francisco	1:0
19.10.25	Fuerte San Francisco - Luis Ángel Firpo	1:4
16.08.25	Luis Ángel Firpo - Fuerte San Francisco	3:0
10.05.25	Luis Ángel Firpo - Fuerte San Francisco	1:2 penalties
08.05.25	Fuerte San Francisco - Luis Ángel Firpo	0:0

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