Match Info

J1 League - Round 24

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	K-Ball
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	PSJ TV
Japan	DAZN Japan
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Gamba Osaka		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.4	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.5
	2.57	3.31	2.52	Watch
	2.75	3.6	2.58
	2.70	3.45	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.5
	2.67	3.44	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.59)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)	2.55 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
35.4%

Draw
27.6%

Kawasaki Frontale
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

27.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

28%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Kawasaki Frontale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	7.7%	61.5%

Gamba Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Kawasaki will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Gamba Osaka (1.91) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Kawasaki (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 4. Kurokawa K. 5. Miura G. 20. Nakatani S. 6. Lavi N. 10. Kurata S. 16. Suzuki T. 7. Usami T. 23. Hummet D. 97. Welton	98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 5. Sasaki A. 35. Maruyama Y. 13. Miura S. 19. Kawahara S. 14. Wakizaka Y. 6. Yamamoto Y. 17. Ito T. 23. Marcinho 11. Kobayashi Y.
Substitutes
2. Fukuoka S. 11. Jebali I. 47. Juan Alano 15. Kishimoto T. 27. Mito R. 51. Mitsuta M. 40. Toyama S. 17. Yamashita R. 31. Zhang A. (G)	21. Ando S. (G) 9. Erison 41. Ienaga A. 27. Kamihashi R. 38. Kanda S. 24. Miyagi T. 16. Ozeki Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 39. Tsuchiya K.
Coaches
Poyatos D.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Kobayashi Y. ⚽, Ito T. (A),
35', Hummet D. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Kurata S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Erison ↑,
57', 2 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Welton (A),
65', Kurata S. ↓, Yamashita R. ↑,
66', Welton 🟨,
70', Marcinho ↓, Miyagi T. ↑,
71', Ito T. ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
79', Wakizaka Y. ↓, Ozeki Y. ↑,
79', Kawahara S. ↓, Tachibanada K. ↑,
82', Welton ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
82', Lavi N. ↓, Mitsuta M. ↑,
89', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
89', Hummet D. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Kawasaki has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Hayashi D. (Inactive) Meshino R. (Inactive) Okunuki K. (Injury)

There will not play in Kawasaki: Erison (Knee Injury) Lee G. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:37. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.5:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	4:5 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
22.06.25	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
18.06.25	Gamba Osaka - Veertien Mie	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWW
- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagamihara	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Tokyo Verdy - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
25.06.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata	3:1 ✺
21.06.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
25.05.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Gamba Osaka	2:2
18.10.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Gamba Osaka	1:1
19.05.24	Gamba Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	3:1
06.08.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Gamba Osaka	3:4
09.04.23	Gamba Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0
09.07.22	Kawasaki Frontale - Gamba Osaka	4:0
06.03.22	Gamba Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale	2:2

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