Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.42	3.15	2.82
	2.64	3.3	2.9
	2.56	3.21	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.51	3.14	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.28)	3.18 ↓ (3.43)	2.82 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
37.3%

Draw
29.5%

Fagiano Okayama
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

27.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

27.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Shimizu S Pulse - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 9 - 90%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimizu: 71.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shimizu S-Pulse will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Umeda T. (G) 14. Park Seung-Wook 51. Sumiyoshi J. 15. Honda Y. 28. Yoshida Y. 6. Uno Z. (C) 10. Matheus Bueno 81. Kozuka K. 49. Kitagawa K. 9. Oh Se-Hun 7. Capixaba	1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 2. Kudo K. 51. Shirai K. 41. Miyamoto E. 33. Kamiya Yuta 88. Yamane T. 40. Kawano K. 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao
Substitutes
23. Chiba K. 5. Kitazume K. 21. Matsuzaki K. 97. Ohata R. 1. Oki Y. (G) 50. Stephens A. 70. Takagi S. 38. Takahashi T. 17. Yumiba M.	3. Fujii K. 52. Hamada T. (G) 22. Ichimi K. 27. Kimura T. 28. Matsumoto M. 5. Ogura K. 6. Omori H. 35. Takahashi A. 98. Werik Popo
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Park Seung-Wook ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Ogura K. ↑,
51', Ogura K. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Oh Se-Hun ⚽, Uno Z. (A),
61', Kawano K. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
64', Honda Y. ↓, Takagi S. ↑,
64', Kozuka K. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
69', Esaka A. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
69', Yamane T. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
74', Capixaba ↓, Matsuzaki K. ↑,
75', Uno Z. ↓, Yumiba M. ↑,
75', Lucao ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Werik Popo ⚽, Ichimi K. (A),
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Ichimi K. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Oh Se-Hun (Penalty Awarded),
2, Werik Popo (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kitagawa K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kimura T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
4, Matsumoto M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Chiba K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 3.

Recent form of Shimizu has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Okayama's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Shimizu: Takahashi Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.99%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWLL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.12.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	1:2
02.03.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1
Japan J2 League
30.06.24	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	3:1
28.04.24	Fagiano Okayama - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:1
29.07.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
25.02.23	Fagiano Okayama - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0
12.11.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	2:1

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