Match Info

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Genoa		Brescia

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	6	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.75
	1.47	4	7
	1.54	3.85	5.8
	1.56	4.03	7.14
	1.5	3.8	7
	1.54	4.15	5.85	Watch
	1.54	4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.75)	3.94 ↑ (3.5)	6.29 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
61.3%

Draw
23.8%

Brescia
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.8%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

25.7%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Genoa's performance.

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Genoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	5.9%	23.5%

Genoa - Brescia Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Genoa will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Brescia will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Genoa has the most likely position - 1 (30.03%), has project points - 68, has currently - 21, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a good chance of promoted (57%), has a chance of win league (30%).

Brescia has the most likely position - 5 (7.87%), has project points - 56, has currently - 17, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (44%), has a chance of promoted (17%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has quality 39, importance 56, match rating 48. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Genoa in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Brescia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Genoa is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Genoa to win the game is with odds 1.47.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Genoa won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Genoa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
22.10.22	Ternana - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Genoa - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Nuova Cosenza - Genoa	1:2 ✺
07.10.22	Genoa - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	SPAL - Genoa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTW
- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
22.10.22	Brescia - Venezia	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
19.10.22	Spezia - Brescia	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cagliari - Brescia	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Brescia - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
01.10.22	Bari - Brescia	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.06.20	Brescia - Genoa	2:2
26.10.19	Genoa - Brescia	3:1
Club Friendly
26.07.14	Brescia - Genoa	1:1

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