Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Alverca		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2.05
	3.45	3.05	2.18	Watch
	3.64	3.23	2.13	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.1
	3.72	3.31	2.17	Watch
	3.75	3.14	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.48)	3.2 ↓ (3.32)	2.12 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
26.2%

Draw
29.4%

Famalicão
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

28.5%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

29.1%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

The chances for Famalicão have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	45.5%	31.8%

Alverca - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Famalicão will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.7% – 66.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Alverca (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 25%). Famalicão (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 11. Nuozzi C.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 16. De Haas J. 3. Realpe L. 5. Rafa Soares 14. De Amorim M. 6. Van de Looi T. 77. Joujou A. 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 10. Chiquinho 20. Figueiredo 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 3. Martinez J. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G)	9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 18. Beney R. 12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 15. Mamageishvili O. 28. Pedro Bondo 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Custodio	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nuozzi C. ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
57', Sandro Lima (Penalty Awarded),
59', Joujou A. ↓, Beney R. ↑,
64', Figueiredo 🟨,
70', Abdulai S. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
70', Sandro Lima ↓, Chiquinho ↑,
74', Rafa Soares 🟨,
74', Lincoln 🟨,
77', Rafa Soares ↓, Pedro Bondo ↑,
77', Zabiri Y. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
79', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
80', Lincoln ↓, Leite T. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Chiquinho (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).

Alverca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Famalicão has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Famalicão will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Injury)

There will not play in Famalicão: Gil Dias (Yellow Cards) Pastor G. (Injury) Rochinha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Leo Chu (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Famalicão - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.37%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLWW
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
27.12.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
20.11.21	Alverca - Famalicão	1:2

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