Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Famalicão		Tondela

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	5.5	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.9	Watch
	1.58	4.15	6.38
	1.55	4.13	6.02	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5.5
	1.61	4.16	5.87	Watch
	1.54	4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.66)	4.04 ↑ (3.86)	5.88 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
60.6%

Draw
23.3%

Tondela
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

24.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

24.1%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Famalicão - Tondela Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Tondela (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Famalicão (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Famalicão will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Tondela (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 5. Afonso J. 27. Conceicao R. 97. Cicero 15. Sithole S. 60. Maviram E. 10. Hodge J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 90. Aiko M.
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 47. Pastor G. 8. Pena M. 3. Realpe L. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 14. Huarte X. 48. Manso T. 19. Rodrigues A. 32. Rodriguez J. 29. Siebatcheu J. 3. Tavares D. 8. Tavares H.
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, De Amorim M. ⚽, Elisor S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Hodge J. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
52', Afonso J. 🟨,
52', Pinheiro R. ↓, Garcia ↑,
60', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Felix H. ↑,
60', Conceicao R. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Gil Dias ⚽,
72', Sithole S. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
78', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
78', Sa G. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Santos P. ⚽,
83', Van de Looi T. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
83', De Amorim M. ↓, Mamageishvili O. ↑,
84', Bebeto ↓, Manso T. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Famalicão has had a series of away games.

In this match, Famalicão is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Tondela: Medina B. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Pastor G. (Injury) Pedro Bondo (Injury) Rochinha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tondela: Moudjatovic M. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
18.01.26	Santa Clara - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.08.25	Tondela - Famalicão	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
09.12.22	Famalicão - Tondela	0:0
Liga Portugal
26.02.22	Famalicão - Tondela	2:1
25.09.21	Tondela - Famalicão	3:2
26.04.21	Famalicão - Tondela	2:2
03.01.21	Tondela - Famalicão	1:0
05.07.20	Tondela - Famalicão	0:1

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