Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.75	7
	1.43	4	6
	1.44	3.6	5.6
	1.42	4.27	7.27
	1.43	4.08	6.92	Watch
	1.43	4.15	7.02
	1.44	3.6	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)	3.92 ↑ (3.88)	6.49 ↓ (7.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
63%

Draw
23%

Amorebieta
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

23.1%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

22.1%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnástic de Tarragona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Amorebieta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varo A. (C) 20. Miguel 15. Leal A. 12. Granero B. 7. Junca D. 10. Jardi J. 8. Montalvo M. 14. Sanz O. 23. Concha D. 9. Antonin 17. Fernandez P.	1. Marino U. (C) 2. Carbonell A. 20. Coto E. 4. Kortazar M. 22. Yuste A. 8. Vicandi A. 14. Ben Hamed N. 18. Coulibaly A. 24. Perez E. 17. Munoz I. 7. Selma D.
Substitutes
11. Fernandez M. 6. Gorostidi A. 18. Jimenez A. 16. Lopez A. 34. Peiri A. C. 3. Perez G. 13. Rebollo D. (G) 2. Vicens B.	5. Amelibia J. 10. Berto 23. Calavera J. 13. Campos G. (G) 11. Hervias P. 9. Kaxe 21. Marin A. 16. Masllorens J. 12. Sola J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Leal A. 🟨,
35', Kortazar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Leal A. ↓, Gorostidi A. ↑,
50', Carbonell A. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Selma D. ⚽,
59', Perez E. 🟨,
62', Granero B. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
62', Montalvo M. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
62', Concha D. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
76', Coulibaly A. ↓, Hervias P. ↑,
76', Perez E. ↓, Masllorens J. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Perez G. ⚽,
78', Jardi J. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
85', Selma D. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
86', Gorostidi A. 🟨,
87', Coto E. 🟨,
88', Munoz I. ↓, Berto ↑,
90', Marin A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Gimnàstic is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Amorebieta is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Amorebieta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gimnàstic is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Gimnàstic won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Gimnàstic won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.01.25	Real Sociedad B - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Gimnástica Segoviana	5:0 ✺
21.12.24	Unionistas de Salamanca - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0 ✺
14.12.24	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Zamora	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Ponferradina - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLWL
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.01.25	Amorebieta - Tarazona	2:2 ✺
12.01.25	Osasuna B - Amorebieta	3:0 ✺
22.12.24	FC Andorra - Amorebieta	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Amorebieta - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
06.12.24	Real Sociedad B - Amorebieta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.09.24	Amorebieta - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.05.23	Amorebieta - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:1
25.09.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Amorebieta	1:0

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