Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo (La Plata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Gimnasia La Plata		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	2.92	2.92	2.62
	3.04	3.07	2.65
	2.91	3.01	2.66
	2.9	2.88	2.5
	3.05	3.05	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.41)	2.99 ↓ (3.09)	2.59 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia La Plata
31.8%

Draw
31.6%

Independiente Rivadavia
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

30.2%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

30.2%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia La Plata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnasia La Plata's form might have worsened.

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Rivadavia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnasia La Plata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Rivadavia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Independiente R will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Independiente R (2.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Gimnasia La Plata (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata (votes: 1 - 20%). Independiente R (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Kadijevic J. (G) 25. Steimbach A. 4. Giampaoli R. 21. Martinez E. 24. Silva Torrejon P. 33. Aguiar P. 16. Max A. 8. Fernandez N. (C) 10. Schelotto N. 7. Panaro M. 32. Torres M.	12. Macagno R. (G) 36. Bonifacio E. 2. Costa L. 42. Studer S. 14. Gomez L. 11. Rios G. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 22. Villa S. (C) 43. Sartori F. 10. Fernandez M.
Substitutes
29. Auzmendi A. 1. Cabrera M. (G) 35. Cortazzo J. 30. De Asis J. 14. Errecalde G. 2. Gonzalez G. 6. Mastrangelo D. 22. Melluso M. 11. Merlo J. 20. Perez J. 18. Seoane M. 26. Torres F.	9. Arce A. 15. Arena N. 19. Atencio R. 30. Bolcato N. (G) 8. Bucca L. 27. Crego D. 17. Dadin B. 3. Elordi J. M. 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 32. Vazquez K. A. 40. Villalba I.
Coaches
Zaniratto F.	Berti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Martinez E. ⚽, Schelotto N. (A),
14', Macagno R. ↓, Bolcato N. ↑,
25', 1 - 1, Sartori F. ⚽, Villa S. (A),
28', 2 - 1, Torres M. ⚽, Fernandez N. (A),
33', Max A. 🟨,
36', Martinez E. 🟨,
39', 2 - 2, Florentin Bobadilla J. I. ⚽, Bonifacio E. (A),
45', Fernandez N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rios G. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
50', Giampaoli R. 🟨,
54', Gomez L. 🟨,
60', Aguiar P. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
63', Steimbach A. 🟨,
64', Bonifacio E. 🟨,
68', Panaro M. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
68', Giampaoli R. ↓, Cortazzo J. ↑,
78', Bonifacio E. ↓, Osella A. ↑,
80', Silva Torrejon P. ↓, Melluso M. ↑,
80', Schelotto N. ↓, Auzmendi A. ↑,
82', Bottari T. ↓, Moreyra S. ↑,
83', Sartori F. ↓, Arce A. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 3, Martinez E. (Own goal),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Independiente R has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Gimnasia La Plata: Di Biasi F. (Knee Injury) German Conti (Inactive) Mammini I. (Knee Injury) Miramon I. (Injury) Villarreal S. (Knee Injury) Zalazar M. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gimnasia La Plata won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimnasia La Plata won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnasia La Plata - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.61%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.03.26	Banfield - Gimnasia La Plata	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Tigre - Gimnasia La Plata	2:2 ✺
25.02.26	Gimnasia La Plata - Rosario Central	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Gimnasia La Plata - Estudiantes La Plata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WTLWT
- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Barracas Central	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate	1:1 ✺
26.02.26	Racing - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Belgrano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.07.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.01.24	Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente Rivadavia	2:3
Argentinian Primera Nacional
29.03.13	Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente Rivadavia	3:0
28.09.12	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia La Plata	1:1

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