Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 23 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo (La Plata)

Referee: Arteaga A. (Ven)


	Gimnasia La Plata		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	4	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.8
	2.02	3.2	3.9
	2.07	3.21	4
	2.05	3	3.6
	2.02	3.32	3.78	Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.62)	3.17 ↑ (3.15)	3.82 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia La Plata
45.8%

Draw
29.6%

Independiente Santa Fe
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

29.3%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

28.3%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gimnasia La Plata's performance.

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gimnasia La Plata that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Santa Fe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	40%	50%

Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Santa Fe will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches Gimnasia La Plata is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Santa Fe is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Santa Fe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Gimnasia La Plata won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.05.23	Godoy Cruz - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
15.05.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Lanús	1:0 ✺
08.05.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Goiás	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.04.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Tigre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWLT
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
17.05.23	Once Caldas - Independiente Santa Fe	3:1 ✺
14.05.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Huila	5:0 ✺
11.05.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	0:2 ✺
07.05.23	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.23	Universitario de Deportes - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
18.04.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Gimnasia La Plata	2:1

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