Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	3Cat, Esport3, FEF TV


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Arenteiro

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	2.19	3	3.45
	2.27	3.1	3.5
	2.21	2.84	3.53	Watch
	2.19	3.03	3.54
	2.19	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.59)	3 ↓ (3.53)	3.48 ↓ (5.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
42.7%

Draw
30.8%

Arenteiro
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

26%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

25.5%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnástic de Tarragona's form might have worsened.

Arenteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arenteiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnástic de Tarragona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arenteiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Arenteiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnàstic (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varo A. (G) 20. Miguel 15. Leal A. 5. Dufur U. 7. Junca D. 14. Sanz O. 6. Gorostidi A. 11. Fernandez M. (C) 19. Torres R. 22. Narro V. 18. Jimenez A.	13. Garcia D. (G) 22. Sanchez J. 20. Perez S. 15. Diori Y. 2. lano Imbene 16. Rivelott Curro 8. Solar M. 11. Cuellar J. 17. Pascu 7. Ferreiro D. 18. Rodriguez E.
Substitutes
23. Concha D. 4. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 17. Fernandez P. 38. Gutierrez A. 10. Jardi J. 8. Montalvo M. 21. Oriol J. 3. Perez G. 37. Pujol E. 13. Rebollo D. (G) 29. Subirats O.	19. Aguado T. 21. Baselga M. 5. Borge A. 14. Cruz A. 10. Esteban S. 24. Fernandez L. 27. Figueroa M. (G) 1. Lopez A. (G) 6. Prendes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Leal A. 🟨,
26', Sanchez J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Jimenez A. ⚽,
45+2', lano Imbene 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Gorostidi A. 🟨,
64', Dufur U. 🟨,
68', Perez S. ↓, Esteban S. ↑,
71', Torres R. ↓, Pujol E. ↑,
71', Leal A. ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
76', Jimenez A. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
76', Fernandez M. ↓, Jardi J. ↑,
80', Cuellar J. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Fernandez P. ⚽,
90', 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 12).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gimnàstic might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Gimnàstic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:2 ✺
10.05.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Lugo	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	FC Andorra - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Real Unión de Irun	4:1 ✺
20.04.25	Leonesa - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTLWL
- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	Arenteiro - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Osasuna B - Arenteiro	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Arenteiro - Zamora	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Arenteiro - Lugo	2:1 ✺
18.04.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Arenteiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.10.24	Arenteiro - Gimnástic de Tarragona	4:0
02.03.24	Arenteiro - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:1
26.08.23	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Arenteiro	1:0

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