Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 2

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: de Lima M. (Bra)


	Grêmio		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	2.9
	2.55	3.25	2.9
	2.45	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.48	3.29	3.07
	2.48	3.29	3.07
	2.3	3.3	2.9
	2.44	3.34	2.93	Watch
	2.44	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.02)	3.28 ↓ (3.33)	2.94 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
38.8%

Draw
28.9%

Athletico Paranaense
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.1%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

28.3%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 2. Fabio 3. Pedro Geromel (C) 53. Gustavo Martins 54. Cuiabano 20. Villasanti M. 17. Dodi 10. Cristaldo F. 21. Pavon C. 11. Joao Pedro 7. Soteldo Y.	1. Bento (G) 22. Madson 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 37. Esquivel L. 26. Erick 5. Fernandinho 20. Julimar 14. Canobbio A. 28. Cuello 9. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
31. Caique (G) 37. Du Queiroz 13. Everton Galdino 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 39. Gustavo Nunes 18. Joao Pedro 36. Nata 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 5. Rodrigo Ely 35. Ronald 46. Ze Guilherme	80. Alex Santana 88. Christian 23. Felipinho 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 18. Jader 24. Leo Linck (G) 41. Mycael (G) 34. Pedro Henrique 50. Renan Viana 10. Zapelli B. 30. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Cristaldo F. ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
31', Cuello ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
33', Alex Santana 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Julimar ↓, Ze Vitor ↑,
46', Madson ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Soteldo Y. ⚽, Villasanti M. (A),
55', Pavon C. ↓, Gustavo Nunes ↑,
59', Ze Vitor 🟨,
63', Fernandinho ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
71', Gustavo Nunes 🟨,
71', Esquivel L. 🟨,
75', Joao Pedro ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
75', Cristaldo F. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
84', Dodi ↓, Nata ↑,
84', Soteldo Y. ↓, Du Queiroz ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletico PR is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Lucas Mila (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 25-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Grêmio - Huachipato	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.04.24	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.24	The Strongest - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
30.03.24	Juventude - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Rayo Zuliano	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
06.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Athletico Paranaense	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
30.03.24	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.10.23	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
27.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	1:2
26.09.21	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	4:2
13.06.21	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
21.02.21	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
25.10.20	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	1:2
27.11.19	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	2:0

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