Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 11

Date: 22 June 2023, Thursday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Alves Batista E. (Bra)


	Grêmio		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.8	5	Watch
	1.63	3.9	5.25
	1.68	4	4.75
	1.69	3.86	5.54
	1.65	3.6	5
	1.66	4.05	4.8	Watch
	1.66	3.8	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.65)	3.86 ↑ (3.85)	5.03 ↓ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
56.8%

Draw
24.4%

América Mineiro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

24.4%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

23.3%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.9%	4.5%	5.6%

Grêmio - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (80 of 89 users predict this - 89.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.63% – 96.15%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brenno (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 34. Bruno Alves 22. Reinaldo 45. Mila 20. Villasanti M. 39. Bitelo 19. Cristaldo F. 54. Cuiabano 9. Suarez L. (C)	1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 25. Marcinho 33. Eder Ferreira 3. Iago Maidana 22. Danilo Avelar 21. Lucas Kal 37. Everaldo 8. Juninho (C) 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 5. Emmanuel Martinez 99. Aloisio
Substitutes
77. Andre 37. Darlan 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 38. Lian 36. Nata 7. Nathan 32. Ribeiro N. 35. Ronald 44. Viery F. 11. Vina 51. Wesley 48. Zinho	16. Ale 18. Cesar J. 11. Felipe Azevedo 6. Marlon 10. Martin Benitez 36. Mateus Henrique 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 78. Renato Marques 65. Rodrigo Varanda 75. Rodriguinho 4. Wanderson 9. Wellington Paulista
Coaches
Renato Portaluppi	Mancini V.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Grêmio has the most likely position - 10 (7.59%), project points - 52, currently - 17, a small chance of relegated (10%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

América MG has the most likely position - 19 (12.63%), project points - 40, currently - 8, a chance of relegated (47%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 46, importance 34, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches América MG is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Diego Souza (Injury) Ferreira (Injury) Jhonata Robert (Injury) Pedro Geromel (Injury)

There will not play in América MG: Adyson (Injury) Dada Belmonte (Injury) Luan Campos (Injury) Martin Benitez (Injury) Matheusinho (Injury) Mikael (Injury) Ricardo Silva (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Grêmio to win the game is with odds 1.65.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
11.06.23	Flamengo - Grêmio	3:0 ✺
04.06.23	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
21.05.23	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 LWWWW
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
11.06.23	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.06.23	América Mineiro - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	América Mineiro - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Internacional RS - América Mineiro	3:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.23	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
13.11.21	América Mineiro - Grêmio	3:1
24.07.21	Grêmio - América Mineiro	1:1
20.10.18	América Mineiro - Grêmio	1:1
10.06.18	Grêmio - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Primeira Liga
05.04.17	Grêmio - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.16	Grêmio - América Mineiro	3:0
31.07.16	América Mineiro - Grêmio	0:0

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