Match Info

K League 1 - Round 7

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-korea	Coupang Play, IB Sports


	Gwangju		Bucheon

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.8	2.15	Watch
	3.5	2.82	2.22
	3.9	3.01	2.28
	3.74	2.82	2.26	Watch
	3.5	2.8	2.25	Watch
	3.58	2.93	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (2.56)	2.86 ↓ (2.95)	2.25 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Gwangju
25.7%

Draw
32.7%

Bucheon
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

31.7%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

30.4%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gwangju's form might have worsened.

Bucheon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bucheon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gwangju, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bucheon than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bucheon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	70%	10%

Gwangju - Bucheon Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Bucheon will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 27. Kim Jin-Ho 24. Kim Y. 6. Ahn Young-Kyu (C) 3. Lee Min-Ki 14. Yu Je-Ho 40. Shin Chang-Moo 16. Joung Ji-hun 19. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 9. Ha Seung-Un 88. Moon Min-seo	1. Kim H. (G) 6. Jeong Ho-Jin 29. Baek Dong-Gyu 20. Hong Sung-Wook 26. An Tae-Hyun 16. Kim Sang-Jun 8. Yoon Bit-Garam 77. Shin Jae-Won 11. Galego 9. Montano J. 22. Han Ji-Ho (C)
Substitutes
10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 26. Gong B. 99. Hong Yong-Jun 8. Ju Se-Jong 23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 25. Kim Yun-ho 15. Kwak Sung-hoon 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 28. Seong Hyun P.	24. Kim Dong-Hyun 21. Kim Hyeon-Yeob (G) 13. Kim Min-Jun 5. Lee S. 44. Lee Ye-chan 19. Seong S. 23. Takahashi K. 7. Thiaguinho Santos 63. Vitor Gabriel
Coaches
Lee J.	Lee Young-Min

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Yu Je-Ho ↓, Ju Se-Jong ↑,
25', An Tae-Hyun 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Han Ji-Ho ↓, Vitor Gabriel ↑,
46', Yoon Bit-Garam ↓, Takahashi K. ↑,
47', Kim Jin-Ho 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Galego ⚽, Montano J. (A),
57', Ju Se-Jong 🟨,
64', Shin Jae-Won ↓, Thiaguinho Santos ↑,
69', Joung Ji-hun ↓, Choi Kyoung-Rok ↑,
76', Lee Min-Ki ↓, Kwon Sung-Yun ↑,
77', Ahn Hyeok-Ju ↓, Kim Yun-ho ↑,
83', Montano J. ↓, Kim Min-Jun ↑,
87', Kim Sang-Jun ↓, Lee S. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2. Aggregate: 1-4. 2nd leg.

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 4.

Gwangju has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bucheon's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gwangju won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Bucheon FC 1995 ✔	31	7	11	13	31:42	-11	32
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Last Results with these Odds

Bucheon - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.8%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
04.04.26	Gangwon - Gwangju	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	FC Seoul - Gwangju	5:0 ✺
17.03.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Gwangju - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTTW
- Bucheon FC 1995
South Korean K-League 1
04.04.26	Jeju - Bucheon	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Pohang Steelers - Bucheon	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Bucheon - Gangwon	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Bucheon - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Bucheon - Daejeon Citizen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean Cup
27.08.25	Bucheon - Gwangju	1:2
20.08.25	Gwangju - Bucheon	2:0
19.06.24	Bucheon - Gwangju	2:3
South Korean K-League 2
30.08.22	Bucheon - Gwangju	2:1
05.07.22	Gwangju - Bucheon	2:1
South Korean Cup
25.05.22	Bucheon - Gwangju	2:1
South Korean K-League 2
23.04.22	Gwangju - Bucheon	1:0

Upcoming Matches