Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 5

Date: 27 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Referee: Al Ali A. (Kuw)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports Asian Cup 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 1, SportKlub
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Malaysia	Astro Go, Sooka
Montenegro	SportKlub
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Gwangju		Shanghai Shenhua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.5	3.7
	1.9	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.96	3.79	3.77
	1.89	3.76	3.69	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.5
	1.96	3.58	3.81	Watch
	1.9	3.6	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.85)	3.62 ↓ (3.67)	3.71 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
48.8%

Draw
25.9%

Shanghai Shenhua
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

25.4%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

25.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Shanghai Shenhua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shanghai Shenhua than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	13.3%	20%

Gwangju - Shanghai Shenhua Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Shanghai Shenhua will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gwangju: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyung-Min (G) 23. Kim Kyeong-Jae 15. Byeon Jun-Soo 3. Lee Min-Ki (C) 27. Kim Jin-Ho 55. Park Tae-Jun 30. Choi Kyoung-Rok 14. Jeong Ho-Yeon 10. Lee Heui-Kyun 77. Oh Hoo-Sung 18. Heo Yool	30. Bao Yaxiong (G) 16. Yang Zexiang 32. Fulangxisi Aidi 5. Zhu C. 27. Chan Shinichi 15. Wu Xi (C) 33. Wang Haijian 17. Gao T. 10. Teixeira J. 9. Andre Luis 11. Malele C.
Substitutes
6. Ahn Young-Kyu 7. Asani J. 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 17. Jeong Ji-Yong 47. Kim Han-Gil 8. Lee Eu-Ddeum 20. Lee G. 24. Lee K. 22. Lee Sang-Gi 88. Moon Min-seo 31. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 40. Shin Chang-Moo	36. Fei Ernanduo 45. Han Jiawen 3. Jin Shunkai 13. Manafa W. 1. Ma Zhen (G) 31. Wang Y. 14. Xie Pengfei 7. Xu Haoyang 20. Yu Hanchao 29. Zhou Junchen 41. Zhou Zhengkai (G)
Coaches
Lee Jung-Hyo	Slutski L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Malele C. 🟨,
45+1', Manafa W. 🟨,
45+2', Byeon Jun-Soo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Oh Hoo-Sung ↓, Asani J. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Asani J. ⚽, Heo Yool (A),
66', Yang Zexiang ↓, Manafa W. ↑,
66', Gao T. ↓, Xu Haoyang ↑,
71', Kim Jin-Ho 🟨,
74', Heo Yool ↓, Lee G. ↑,
75', Lee Heui-Kyun ↓, Shin Chang-Moo ↑,
77', Wang Haijian ↓, Xie Pengfei ↑,
79', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Jeong Ji-Yong ↑,
79', Lee Min-Ki ↓, Cho Sung-Gwon ↑,
81', Lee G. 🟨,
84', Malele C. ↓, Yu Hanchao ↑,
89', Teixeira J. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Gwangju is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Shanghai Shenhua is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Shanghai Shenhua could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Gwangju will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
24.11.24	Gwangju - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:1 ✺
10.11.24	Jeju - Gwangju	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Vissel Kobe - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
02.11.24	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	0:0 ✺
27.10.24	Incheon United - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TTLTL
- Shanghai Shenhua
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Central Coast Mariners - Shanghai Shenhua	2:2 ✺
Chinese Super League
02.11.24	Chengdu Rongcheng - Shanghai Shenhua	1:2 ✺
27.10.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Shenzhen Peng City	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
23.10.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
18.10.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Henan Songshan Longmen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWTWW

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