Match Info

K League 1 - Round 15

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
Switzerland	LAOLA1
World	K League TV


	Incheon United		Gwangju

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.5	8	Watch
	1.49	3.65	6.9
	1.52	4.05	7.96
	1.48	3.95	7.39	Watch
	1.5	3.6	7	Watch
	1.48	3.84	7.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.5)	3.77 ↓ (3.92)	7.48 ↑ (6.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
62.7%

Draw
24.8%

Gwangju
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

23.8%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

23.2%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Incheon United - Gwangju Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Incheon will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Gwangju will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 4. Kim Gun-Hee 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 15. Seo Jae-Min 11. Gerso 99. Ferrier M. 72. Lee Chung-Yong	23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 9. Ha Seung-Un 24. Yong-Wook K. 39. Min Sang-Gi 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 3. Lee Min-Ki 8. Ju Se-Jong (C) 88. Moon Min-seo 16. Joung Ji-hun 19. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 11. Fridjonsson H.
Substitutes
14. Baek Min-gyu 13. Choi Seung-gu 23. Jeong Chi-In 25. Jeong Tae-Wook 17. Kim Seong-Min 3. Lee Sang-Gi 31. Lee Sang-hyeon (G) 19. Park Ho-Min 77. Park Seung-Ho	6. Ahn Young-Kyu 26. Gong B. 99. Hong Yong-Jun 42. Kang Hui-Su 27. Kim Jin-Ho 1. Kim Kyeong-min (G) 25. Kim Yun-ho 28. Seong Hyun P. 14. Yu Je-Ho
Coaches
Yoon Jong-Hwan	Lee J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Ibiza ⚽, Lee Ju-Yong (A),
26', 2 - 0, Ferrier M. ⚽, Lee Chung-Yong (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kim Y. ↓, Gong B. ↑,
55', 3 - 0, Gerso ⚽, Lee Dong-Ryul (A),
57', Ahn Hyeok-Ju ↓, Kim Jin-Ho ↑,
57', Lee Min-Ki ↓, Hong Yong-Jun ↑,
65', 4 - 0, Lee Chung-Yong (Penalty Awarded),
73', Lee Myoung-Joo ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
73', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Park Seung-Ho ↑,
75', Gong B. 🟨,
79', Gerso ↓, Baek Min-gyu ↑,
79', Ju Se-Jong ↓, Yu Je-Ho ↑,
79', Joung Ji-hun ↓, Seong Hyun P. ↑,
82', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,
82', Ferrier M. ↓, Park Ho-Min ↑,
88', Moon Min-seo 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 3.

Incheon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gwangju is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Gwangju has had a series of home games.

In this match, Incheon is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Incheon won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
12.05.26	Incheon United - Pohang Steelers	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	0:3 ✺
05.05.26	Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Incheon United - Gangwon	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Incheon United - Jeju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWTLW
- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
12.05.26	Gwangju - FC Seoul	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Gwangju - Gangwon	0:0 ✺
05.05.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Gwangju	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	0:5 ✺
26.04.26	Gwangju - Anyang	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
07.03.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	3:2
27.10.24	Incheon United - Gwangju	1:0
14.07.24	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:2
25.05.24	Incheon United - Gwangju	1:1
03.04.24	Gwangju - Incheon United	2:3
28.10.23	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:2
18.08.23	Incheon United - Gwangju	2:2

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