Match Info

K League 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, JTBC Golf&Sports
World	K League TV


	Gwangju		Daejeon Citizen

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.5	1.67	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.8
	5.15	3.55	1.62
	5.63	3.8	1.68
	5.42	3.61	1.66	Watch
	5	3.4	1.67	Watch
	5.31	3.55	1.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.19 ↑ (4.11)	3.54 ↑ (3.5)	1.69 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
18.1%

Draw
26.4%

Daejeon Citizen
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

26.7%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

25.1%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Daejeon Citizen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gwangju, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daejeon Citizen than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daejeon Citizen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Daejeon Citizen will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Daejeon Citizen: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyeong-min (G) 9. Ha Seung-Un (C) 39. Min Sang-Gi 26. Gong B. 3. Lee Min-Ki 16. Joung Ji-hun 8. Ju Se-Jong 88. Moon Min-seo 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 19. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 13. Park Jeong-In	1. Lee Chang-Geun (G) 33. Kim Moon-Hwan (C) 3. Kim Min-Duk 30. Kim Bong-Soo 98. Krivotsyuk A. 16. Lee Myung-Jae 14. Kim Jun-Beom 17. Ludwigson G. 20. Lee H. 27. Jeong Jae-Hee 9. Diogo Oliveira
Substitutes
6. Ahn Young-Kyu 11. Fridjonsson H. 99. Hong Yong-Jun 42. Kang Hui-Su 27. Kim Jin-Ho 24. Kim Y. 25. Kim Yun-ho 21. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 28. Seong Hyun P.	77. Joao Victor 10. Joo Min-Kyu 6. Kang Yun-Sung 70. Kim Hyeon-Ug 25. Lee Jun-Seo (G) 5. Lim Jong-Eun 2. Park K. 19. Seo Jin-Su 99. Yu Kang-Hyun
Coaches
Lee J.	Hwang Sun-Hong

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Ludwigson G. (A),
32', 0 - 2, Jeong Jae-Hee ⚽,
37', Lee Min-Ki 🟨,
45+5', Ju Se-Jong 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Park Jeong-In ↓, Fridjonsson H. ↑,
46', Lee Min-Ki ↓, Kim Jin-Ho ↑,
52', 0 - 3, Kim Jun-Beom ⚽,
54', 0 - 4, Jeong Jae-Hee ⚽,
58', Kim Jun-Beom ↓, Seo Jin-Su ↑,
58', Jeong Jae-Hee ↓, Kim Hyeon-Ug ↑,
58', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Joo Min-Kyu ↑,
59', Ju Se-Jong ↓, Kim Y. ↑,
60', Min Sang-Gi ↓, Ahn Young-Kyu ↑,
61', 0 - 5, Joo Min-Kyu ⚽, Seo Jin-Su (A),
65', Ha Seung-Un ↓, Hong Yong-Jun ↑,
66', Hong Yong-Jun 🟨,
68', Lee H. ↓, Kang Yun-Sung ↑,
73', Ludwigson G. 🟨,
75', Kim Jin-Ho 🟨,
85', Ludwigson G. ↓, Yu Kang-Hyun ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 1.

Gwangju has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Daejeon Citizen has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Daejeon Citizen is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gwangju won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Daejeon	31	11	10	10	48:38	10	43
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
26.04.26	Gwangju - Anyang	2:5 ✺
22.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	5:1 ✺
11.04.26	Gwangju - Bucheon	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gangwon - Gwangju	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Daejeon Citizen
South Korean K-League 1
26.04.26	Ulsan HD - Daejeon Citizen	1:4 ✺
22.04.26	Daejeon Citizen - Jeju	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	FC Seoul - Daejeon Citizen	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Daejeon Citizen - Gangwon	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Pohang Steelers - Daejeon Citizen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
17.08.25	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	2:0
22.06.25	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	2:2
29.03.25	Daejeon Citizen - Gwangju	1:1
02.11.24	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	0:0
01.09.24	Daejeon Citizen - Gwangju	2:0
22.06.24	Daejeon Citizen - Gwangju	2:1
06.05.24	Gwangju - Daejeon Citizen	2:1

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