Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports Asian Cup 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 1, SportKlub
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	Disney+ Hotstar, FanCode, FanCode, Star Sports Select 1, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, RCTI+
Iraq	Al Rabiaa Sport
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Montenegro	SportKlub 1, SportKlub
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2
Philippines	Matchday+
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Gwangju		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.2	2.45	Watch
	3.4	3.15	2.18	Watch
	3.71	3.27	2.16
	3.49	3.25	2.12	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.1
	3.39	3.45	2.14	Watch
	3.4	3.15	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↑ (2.97)	3.24 ↑ (3.21)	2.19 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
27.9%

Draw
29.1%

Vissel Kobe
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28.9%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

28.5%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Vissel Kobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	38.5%	53.8%

Gwangju - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Gwangju will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vissel Kobe: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyung-Min (G) 27. Kim Jin-Ho 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 39. Min Sang-Gi 3. Lee Min-Ki (C) 7. Asani J. 24. Lee K. 55. Park Tae-Jun 77. Oh Hoo-Sung 90. Reis 13. Park Jeong-In	1. Maekawa D. (G) 23. Hirose R. 4. Yamakawa T. (C) 3. Thuler 55. Iwanami T. 25. Kuwasaki Y. 6. Ogihara T. 18. Ide H. 22. Sasaki D. 10. Osako Y. 9. Miyashiro T.
Substitutes
4. Bruno Oliveira 30. Choi Kyoung-Rok 5. Jin Si-woo 80. Ju Se-Jong 42. Kang H. S. 47. Kim Han-Gil 45. Kwon Sung-Yun 88. Moon Min-seo 9. Park In-Hyeok 31. Roh Hee-Dong (G) 40. Shin Chang-Moo	21. Arai S. (G) 27. Erik 52. Hamasaki K. 33. Hashimoto R. 44. Hidaka M. 7. Ideguchi Y. 66. Matsuda R. 65. Motoyama H. 11. Muto Y. 50. Obi P. O. (G) 30. Yamauchi K.
Coaches
Lee Jung-Hyo	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Kuwasaki Y. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Park Jeong-In ⚽, Park Tae-Jun (A),
27', Sasaki D. 🟨,
36', Min Sang-Gi 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Miyashiro T. ↓, Muto Y. ↑,
60', Ogihara T. 🟨,
67', Park Jeong-In ↓, Park In-Hyeok ↑,
69', Kuwasaki Y. ↓, Erik ↑,
69', Ide H. ↓, Ideguchi Y. ↑,
77', Lee K. ↓, Ju Se-Jong ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Asani J. (Pen),
90+2', Osako Y. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
102', Sasaki D. ↓, Yamauchi K. ↑,
112', Min Sang-Gi ↓, Bruno Oliveira ↑,
116', Oh Hoo-Sung ↓, Choi Kyoung-Rok ↑,
118', 3 - 0, Asani J. ⚽, Choi Kyoung-Rok (A),
119', Asani J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Gwangju could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Gwangju won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:4 (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Gwangju - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 31.22%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
01.03.25	Gwangju - Anyang	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Gwangju - Buriram United	2:2 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
15.02.25	Gwangju - Suwon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWTTT
- Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
26.02.25	Vissel Kobe - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
05.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Gwangju	2:0
05.11.24	Vissel Kobe - Gwangju	2:0

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