Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.78	3.95	4.3	Watch
	1.79	4.15	4.4
	1.72	4.11	4.37	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.33
	1.75	4.03	4.72	Watch
	1.7	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.73)	3.99 ↓ (4.15)	4.42 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
54.7%

Draw
23.8%

Holstein Kiel
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

22.9%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

24%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	5.9%	23.5%

Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Peretz D. (G) 13. Ramos G. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. (C) 14. Philippe R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.	1. Weiner T. (G) 26. Zec D. 6. Ivezic M. 3. Komenda M. (C) 23. Rosenboom L. 24. Knudsen M. 15. Davidsen K. 47. Tolkin J. 10. Therkelsen J. 20. Kapralik A. 19. Harres P.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 7. Dompe J. 1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 18. Jatta B. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 29. Sahiti E. 22. Soumahoro A.	17. Cvjetinovic M. 45. Koster L. 21. Krumrey J. (G) 25. Muller M. 48. Muqaj H. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Davidsen K. 🟨,
12', Remberg N. 🟨,
12', Rosenboom L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Zec D. 🟨,
60', Davidsen K. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
64', Remberg N. ↓, Meffert J. ↑,
64', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Sahiti E. ↑,
69', Ivezic M. 🟨,
78', Komenda M. ↓, Nekic I. ↑,
78', Therkelsen J. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
82', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
85', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
87', Nekic I. 🟨,
90', Tolkin J. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
94', Kapralik A. ↓, Koster L. ↑,
98', Torunarigha J. ↓, Soumahoro A. ↑,
99', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Jatta B. ↑,
100', Meffert J. 🟨,
103', Rosenboom L. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
107', 1 - 0, Jatta B. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
118', 1 - 1, Harres P. ⚽,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Zec D. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Philippe R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ivezic M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Vieira F. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Schwab S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Muheim M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Nekic I. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Soumahoro A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Harres P. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Hamburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hamburg is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Groin Injury) Glatzel R. (Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Inactive) Kelati A. (Knee Injury) Skrzybski S. (Heel Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:27. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLTLW
- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
29.11.25	Holstein Kiel - Hertha Berlin	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Kaiserslautern - Holstein Kiel	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Holstein Kiel - Silkeborg IF	3:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
09.11.25	Holstein Kiel - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Preußen Münster - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
20.04.24	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	0:1
11.11.23	Holstein Kiel - Hamburger SV	4:2
18.03.23	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	0:0
09.09.22	Holstein Kiel - Hamburger SV	2:3
10.04.22	Holstein Kiel - Hamburger SV	1:0
30.10.21	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:1
08.03.21	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:1

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