Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 10

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.9	1.9	Watch
	3.7	3.95	1.9	Watch
	3.88	4	1.93
	4.10	4.19	1.75	Watch
	3.98	4.11	1.92	Watch
	5	4.1	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↓ (4.13)	4.04 ↓ (4.13)	1.85 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
23.8%

Draw
23.9%

Borussia Dortmund
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.1%	10.8%	81.1%

Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Borussia D (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Hamburg (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Borussia D (votes: 11 - 91.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. (C) 7. Dompe J.	1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 23. Can E. (C) 26. Ryerson J. 13. Gross P. 7. Bellingham J. 24. Svensson D. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 9. Glatzel R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 26. Peretz D. (G) 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 22. Soumahoro A.	27. Adeyemi K. 28. Anselmino A. 5. Bensebaini R. 10. Brandt J. 2. Couto Y. 33. Meyer A. (G) 8. Nmecha F. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Poulsen Y. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Chukwuemeka C. ⚽, Schlotterbeck N. (A),
66', Beier M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
74', Philippe R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
74', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
82', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
89', Torunarigha J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
89', Capaldo N. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
90+3', Gross P. ↓, Sabitzer M. ↑,
90+3', Guirassy S. ↓, Anselmino A. ↑,
90+4', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

In recent matches, Hamburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Borussia D is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of away games.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Omari W. (Knee Injury) Pherai I. (Red Card) Vieira F. (Red Card)

There will not play in Borussia D: Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Back Injury) Brandt J. (Muscle Injury) Sule N. (Toe Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:27. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW
- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Manchester City - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.10.25	Augsburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Copenhagen - Borussia Dortmund	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
10.02.18	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0
20.09.17	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	0:3
04.04.17	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:0
05.11.16	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	2:5
17.04.16	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:0
20.11.15	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	3:1
07.03.15	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	0:0

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