Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 3, Play Sports 1
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, Sport 1, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	Sport 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport+
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Ulm 1846

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.5	6.5	Watch
	1.39	5.25	7
	1.37	5.2	6.6	Watch
	1.39	5.61	7.21
	1.38	5.48	6.92	Watch
	1.36	5	7	Watch
	1.37	5.55	7	Watch
	1.37	5.2	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.36)	5.35 ↑ (5.16)	6.85 ↓ (7.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
68.6%

Draw
17.6%

Ulm 1846
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

18.3%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.5%

17.5%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	5.6%	16.7%

Hamburger SV - Ulm 1846 Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Ulm will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Ulm (1.86) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -2 - Hamburg (2.59) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Hamburg (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hamburger SV will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 9 - 75%). Ulm (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Poreba L. 8. Elfadli D. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 23. Meffert J. 14. Reis L. 29. Sahiti E. 27. Selke D. 7. Dompe J.	1. Thiede N. (G) 7. Allgeier B. 32. Strompf P. 4. Gaal T. 43. Rosch R. 30. Krattenmacher M. 14. Dressel D. 16. Keller A. 22. Kahvic A. 29. Telalovic S. 33. Higl F.
Substitutes
39. Agyekum J. 45. Balde F. 9. Glatzel R. 30. Hefti S. 17. Karabec A. 10. Pherai I. 19. Raab M. (G) 20. Richter M. 49. Stange O.	21. Batista Meier O. 11. Chessa D. 6. Geyer T. 38. Hyrylainen L. 13. Leipertz R. 10. Ludwig A. 39. Ortag C. (G) 5. Reichert J. 9. Roser L.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Lechleiter R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Gaal T. ⚽, Strompf P. (A),
10', 1 - 1, Reis L. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
35', Muheim M. 🟨,
36', Telalovic S. (Pen),
40', Sahiti E. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Sahiti E. (A),
45+4', 3 - 1, Selke D. ⚽, Dompe J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Keller A. ↓, Chessa D. ↑,
46', Sahiti E. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
49', 4 - 1, Strompf P. (Own goal),
61', Gaal T. 🟨,
62', 5 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽,
67', Telalovic S. ↓, Roser L. ↑,
67', Krattenmacher M. ↓, Ludwig A. ↑,
69', Selke D. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
69', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Karabec A. ↑,
73', Mikelbrencis W. 🟨,
80', Poreba L. ↓, Richter M. ↑,
80', Muheim M. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
84', Rosch R. ↓, Reichert J. ↑,
87', 6 - 1, Elfadli D. ⚽, Dompe J. (A),
89', Higl F. ↓, Leipertz R. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ulm may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hamburg is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Jatta B. (Knee Injury) Katterbach N. (Knee Injury) Schonlau S. (Yellow Cards) Soumahoro A. (Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Ulm: Reichert J. (Knock)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
03.05.25	Darmstadt - Hamburger SV	0:4 ✺
27.04.25	Hamburger SV - Karlsruher	1:2 ✺
19.04.25	Schalke 04 - Hamburger SV	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:4 ✺
05.04.25	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTLW
- Ulm 1846
German 2 Bundesliga
03.05.25	Ulm 1846 - Hannover	1:2 ✺
25.04.25	Greuther Fürth - Ulm 1846	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Ulm 1846 - Hertha Berlin	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	Ulm 1846 - Magdeburg	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Schalke 04 - Ulm 1846	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
14.12.24	Ulm 1846 - Hamburger SV	1:1

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