Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 32

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Porila A. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	14:30	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Harju JK Laagri		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.60	3.00
	1.94	3.70	3.20
	1.94	3.93	3.49
	2.06	3.76	3.14	Watch
	1.92	3.75	3.45
	1.92	3.55	3.30	Watch
	2.01	3.60	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.09)	3.7 ↓ (3.73)	3.24 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 0.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harju JK Laagri
46.8%

Draw
24.8%

Pärnu Vaprus
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.8%

24.5%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

23.4%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harju JK Laagri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harju JK Laagri than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+2%)

Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vainula J. (G) 23. Rudenko Daniil 3. Kaevats A. 88. Seck M. 20. Vaher A. 7. Reimaa R. (C) 6. Palutaja H. 66. Roomussaar K. 17. Kelement M. 9. Eerme K. 19. Binate A.	16. Nomm O. (C) 28. Lipp M. 66. Nomm U. 5. Aer S. 24. Villota M. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S. 8. Pajo T. 17. Kapper S. 42. Limberg M.
Substitutes
10. Assale Y. E. 4. Jarve A. 41. Kajari E. 22. Kesa M. 11. Kose A. 16. Kriis K. 24. Laur K. 15. Liit S. 79. Meesit R. (G) 53. Ndakala J. 21. Soo S.	64. Allas J. 15. Aloe K. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 74. Kutsar K. 9. Poder J. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M.
Coaches
Nuuma L.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Reimaa R. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Eerme K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Kaevats A. 🟨,
57', Lipp M. 🟨,
57', Palutaja H. ↓, Kesa M. ↑,
68', Kaevats A. ↓, Laur K. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Kelement M. ⚽, Binate A. (A),
73', Sild J. 🟨,
73', Kesa M. 🟨,
76', Kapper S. 🟨,
77', Kapper S. ↓, Kauber K. ↑,
79', Viidas S. 🟨,
84', Binate A. ↓, Kose A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harju won 1.

Harju arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Pärnu Vaprus has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Harju is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Harju in today's match, at odds of 2.02.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Harju has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:18 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Harju against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 5:12 goals (averaging 0.8:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Harju JK Laagri	34	15	2	17	49:50	-1	47
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	33	10	6	17	45:67	-22	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harju JK Laagri
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Nõmme Kalju - Harju JK Laagri	0:1 ✺
Estonian Cup
03.10.26	FC Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri	0:10 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.09.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WWWTW
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Levadia Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
09.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	3:2
16.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
04.04.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	0:2
27.09.25	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
25.07.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	2:2
26.04.25	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	0:1
05.04.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	1:1

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