Match Info

National League - Round 30

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Aldershot Town

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.4
	1.95	3.65	3.35
	1.99	3.95	3.39
	2.01	3.74	3.3	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.3
	1.97	3.61	3.51
	2	3.8	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.82)	3.69 ↓ (3.91)	3.36 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
47.2%

Draw
25.2%

Aldershot Town
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

23.6%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

22.7%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Aldershot Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartlepool United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Aldershot will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aldershot Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Hayes N. (G) 6. McNally R. 5. Kouogun M. 4. Parkes T. (C) 2. Benn J. 18. Miley J. 7. Holohan G. 14. Sheron N. 17. Folarin S. 19. Reid A. 37. Sinclair T.	41. Boyce-Clarke C. (G) 19. Hill R. (C) 25. Nightingale W. 6. Widdrington T. 33. Inwood S. 7. Hargreaves C. 12. Anderson K. 22. Scott O. 24. Warren C. 29. Patton S. 23. Ghandour H.
Substitutes
24. Brown P. 10. Campbell A. 8. Ferguson N. 15. Hunter J. 3. John C. 9. Johnson D. 40. Smith A. (G)	15. Grogan C. 17. Henry J. 4. Jenkins L. 16. Nash P. (G) 27. Nelson T. 18. Rai K. 9. Thomas K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+13', 0 - 1, Patton S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 2, Warren C. ⚽,
52', Parkes T. ↓, John C. ↑,
53', Sheron N. ↓, Campbell A. ↑,
58', Folarin S. ↓, Brown P. ↑,
60', Anderson K. ↓, Jenkins L. ↑,
75', Reid A. 🟨,
76', Benn J. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
76', Holohan G. ↓, Ferguson N. ↑,
77', Widdrington T. ↓, Thomas K. ↑,
77', Patton S. ↓, Grogan C. ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Thomas K. ⚽, Ghandour H. (A),
87', Warren C. ↓, Nelson T. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 9 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 2.

Hartlepool is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aldershot's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hartlepool may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hartlepool is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18:16	2	18
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12:19	-7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50.66%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
24.01.26	Brackley Town - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
20.01.26	Hartlepool United - Gateshead	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Hartlepool United - Altrincham	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Woking - Hartlepool United	4:0 ✺
30.12.25	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWWLW
- Aldershot Town
English National League
17.01.26	Eastleigh - Aldershot Town	1:4 ✺
10.01.26	Aldershot Town - Solihull Moors	1:5 ✺
30.12.25	Aldershot Town - Wealdstone	4:1 ✺
26.12.25	Sutton United - Aldershot Town	0:0 ✺
English National League Cup
23.12.25	Aldershot Town - West Ham United U21	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0
22.02.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	3:2
26.10.24	Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town	2:0
06.04.24	Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town	2:0
21.10.23	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	2:1
15.05.21	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:3
03.10.20	Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town	2:1

Hartlepool United - Aldershot Town: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide