Match Info

National League - Round 28

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	6
	1.48	4.55	5.5
	1.57	4.24	5.12	Watch
	1.5	4.33	5
	1.45	4.4	5.48
	1.5	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.39)	4.35 ↓ (4.65)	5.43 ↓ (7.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
61.8%

Draw
21.2%

Gateshead
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

20%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

14.3%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hartlepool United's form might have worsened.

Gateshead has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hartlepool United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Hartlepool United - Gateshead Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hartlepool (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hartlepool United will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartlepool (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Hayes N. (G) 6. McNally R. 5. Kouogun M. 4. Parkes T. (C) 2. Benn J. 18. Miley J. 15. Hunter J. 14. Sheron N. 10. Campbell A. 19. Reid A. 11. Charman L.	1. Brooks T. (G) 20. John F. 28. Storey L. 3. Ferguson D. (C) 29. Nicholson B. 10. Butterfield J. 21. Chadwick B. 11. Newton T. 19. Beck M. 7. Ward K. 15. Amantchi L.
Substitutes
24. Brown P. 28. Daly M. 8. Ferguson N. 17. Folarin S. 9. Johnson D. 35. Nathaniel-George A. 40. Smith A. (G)	8. Bowen S. 22. Edwards C. 23. Fitzhugh E. 6. Flint W. 17. Home J. 34. Melbourne M. 9. Telford D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Storey L. ⚽, Ward K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Storey L. 🟥,
53', Butterfield J. ↓, Melbourne M. ↑,
57', Campbell A. ↓, Folarin S. ↑,
57', Hunter J. ↓, Daly M. ↑,
60', Newton T. ↓, Bowen S. ↑,
60', Amantchi L. ↓, Edwards C. ↑,
74', Parkes T. ↓, Brown P. ↑,
77', Chadwick B. ↓, Flint W. ↑,
78', Miley J. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Reid A. ⚽,
89', 2 - 1, Daly M. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 9 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 3.

Recent performances by Hartlepool have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gateshead is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Hartlepool may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hartlepool is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 2:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 2.3:1.5).

Outrights of English National League for now

Hartlepool: 0.33% Gateshead: 0.03%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12:19	-7	12
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8:31	-23	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
17.01.26	Hartlepool United - Altrincham	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Woking - Hartlepool United	4:0 ✺
30.12.25	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Hartlepool United - Scunthorpe United	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Braintree Town - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWLT
- Gateshead
English National League
17.01.26	Gateshead - Rochdale	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Tamworth - Gateshead	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Scunthorpe United - Gateshead	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Gateshead - Carlisle United	0:3 ✺
21.12.25	Gateshead - Eastleigh	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1
21.04.25	Hartlepool United - Gateshead	3:2
26.12.24	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	4:3
26.03.24	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	7:1
12.08.23	Hartlepool United - Gateshead	2:1
01.01.19	Hartlepool United - Gateshead	2:1
26.12.18	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	2:1

Hartlepool United - Gateshead: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide