Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 44

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	3.1
	2.25	3.25	3.1
	2.25	3.15	3.1
	2.37	3.28	3.26
	2.3	3.2	3.1
	2.28	3.38	3.1	Watch
	2.28	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.5)	3.25 ↑ (3.2)	3.1 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
40.8%

Draw
28.9%

Crawley Town
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.4%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Hartlepool United - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 23 (68.23%), project points - 42, currently - 39, a good chance of relegated (73%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Crawley has the most likely position - 22 (59.92%), project points - 45, currently - 42, a chance of relegated (27%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has very small quality 6, very big importance 100, match rating 53. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Hartlepool will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
18.04.23	Salford City - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
15.04.23	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Hartlepool United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Grimsby Town - Hartlepool United	1:4 ✺
01.04.23	Hartlepool United - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LLTWW
- Crawley Town
English League Two
18.04.23	Crawley Town - Colchester United	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Crawley Town - Tranmere Rovers	2:1 ✺
10.04.23	Barrow - Crawley Town	4:0 ✺
07.04.23	Crawley Town - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Mansfield Town - Crawley Town	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.12.22	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:2
12.02.22	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:1
07.08.21	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:0
14.01.17	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	1:0
08.10.16	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:1
19.03.16	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:0
24.10.15	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:2

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