Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 43

Date: 18 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Peninsula Stadium (Salford)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Salford City		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	6
	1.47	4.5	6
	1.48	4.5	5.75
	1.48	4.66	6.74
	1.47	4.2	6.5
	1.47	4.5	6.45	Watch
	1.44	4.4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.69)	4.47 ↑ (3.62)	6.18 ↑ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salford City
63.9%

Draw
21%

Hartlepool United
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.7%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

25.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Salford City's performance.

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Salford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Salford City - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Salford will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Hartlepool will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Salford: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Salford has the most likely position - 8 (47.49%), project points - 73, currently - 66, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (46%), a small chance of promoted (13%), not chance of win league.

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 23 (58.46%), project points - 43, currently - 39, a good chance of relegated (65%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 10, importance 55, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Salford won 4.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Salford is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Salford won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Salford won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Salford City
English League Two
15.04.23	Salford City - Colchester United	0:1 ✺
10.04.23	AFC Wimbledon - Salford City	2:3 ✺
07.04.23	Salford City - Leyton Orient	0:2 ✺
31.03.23	Stockport County - Salford City	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Stevenage Borough - Salford City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LWLTW
- Hartlepool United
English League Two
15.04.23	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Hartlepool United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Grimsby Town - Hartlepool United	1:4 ✺
01.04.23	Hartlepool United - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
25.03.23	Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.10.22	Hartlepool United - Salford City	0:2
02.04.22	Hartlepool United - Salford City	0:2
16.10.21	Salford City - Hartlepool United	1:0
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Salford City - Hartlepool United	2:0 ET
English National League
27.04.19	Hartlepool United - Salford City	3:2
25.09.18	Salford City - Hartlepool United	3:0
English FA Cup
15.12.15	Hartlepool United - Salford City	2:0 ET

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