Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 42

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Handley D. (Eng)


	Newport County		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.75
	1.82	3.5	4.1
	1.82	3.6	4.1
	1.83	3.65	4.65
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.84	3.6	4.25	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.79)	3.52 ↑ (3.32)	4.31 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
51.5%

Draw
26.7%

Hartlepool United
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

28%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

27.9%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Newport County - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Hartlepool will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartlepool: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Newport has the most likely position - 15 (14.38%), project points - 56, currently - 47, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 22 (37.54%), project points - 44, currently - 39, a chance of relegated (42%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has very small quality 9, importance 32, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 3.

Recent matches Newport is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hartlepool is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Newport is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Newport won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
10.04.23	Stockport County - Newport County	4:0 ✺
07.04.23	Newport County - Northampton Town	3:0 ✺
01.04.23	Colchester United - Newport County	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Tranmere Rovers - Newport County	1:3 ✺
14.03.23	Newport County - AFC Wimbledon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWTWT
- Hartlepool United
English League Two
10.04.23	Hartlepool United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Grimsby Town - Hartlepool United	1:4 ✺
01.04.23	Hartlepool United - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
25.03.23	Hartlepool United - Leyton Orient	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Bradford City - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
21.02.23	Hartlepool United - Newport County	0:1
18.03.22	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:3
12.11.21	Hartlepool United - Newport County	1:2
28.01.17	Newport County - Hartlepool United	3:1
27.08.16	Hartlepool United - Newport County	2:2
15.03.16	Newport County - Hartlepool United	0:0
18.08.15	Hartlepool United - Newport County	1:0

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